For methane gas

Doubtful figures undermine the climate agreement

8 August 2017 - Niels van der Boom

Research by the BBC shows that some countries are not so careful with their figures on greenhouse gas emissions. In addition to China and India, this also concerns European countries, such as Italy. The problem is that numbers can deviate by up to 100%. That is why scientists are asking the question: what is the Paris climate agreement still worth?

195 countries signed the Paris Climate Agreement in December 2015. In doing so, the countries commit themselves that, no matter how rich or poor they are, they must provide data on greenhouse gas emissions every 2 years. For that data, for example, data is used on the number of car journeys, how much energy is used for heating offices and houses, but also the size of the livestock.

Monitoring stations find emissions that are not there on paper

Official figures incorrect
The problem is that various monitoring stations, which continuously monitor air quality, measure much higher emissions than the countries themselves report. For example, a record amount of the gas HFC-23, originating from northern Italy, was measured in Switzerland. It concerns 60 to 80 tons, while the country itself writes about 2 to 3 tons. The gas used in the refrigeration and air conditioning industry is 14.800 times more harmful than CO2 to the ozone layer.

Chinese cheating figures
In China it is even worse. The refrigerant Tetrachloromethane has been banned in Europe since 2002. The Chinese government reports that the gas is no longer in the country, while between 10.000 and 20.000 tons are emitted annually. The annual Chinese report on greenhouse gas emissions has 30 pages. That of the United Kingdom several hundred pages. The country refuses to recognize that it is the biggest polluter in the world. The government simply denies it. About 10% of all emissions are accounted for by the country.

Methane emissions from cows
Methane gas plays a major role in India. Over 15% of all the world's livestock is in India. The problem is the uncertainty of the quoted values. The methane emissions from ruminants can differ by about 50% from what India actually reports. For nitrous oxide, the margin of error is even 100%. Researchers report that the variance in Russian figures for methane emissions could also be about 30% to 40%.

50

procent

figures for methane emissions from ruminants may differ

Cause uncertain
Methane is the second most common greenhouse gas after CO1. It is produced by microbes in swamps, rice cultivation, waste dumping, agriculture and fossil fuel production. Worldwide, methane emissions are increasing, but scientists are unable to pinpoint exactly what this is due to.

Doubts about Paris agreement
Despite the fact that countries play nice weather with dubious figures, it is a fact that emissions into the air are increasing. “The warming caused by methane gas is enough to turn the whole Paris agreement on its head,” said Professor Euan Nisbet of the University of London. Discussions are currently underway on how countries compile their figures.

The essence of the climate agreement is that the amount of greenhouse gases is registered every 5 years. It is then up to the countries to reduce the amount and raise the bar for it. If the registration is fed by dubious figures, the stock measurement is by definition worthless.

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Niels van der Boom

Niels van der Boom is a senior market specialist for arable crops at DCA Market Intelligence. He mainly makes analyses and market updates about the potato market. In columns he shares his sharp view on the arable sector and technology.

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