Inside: Pig Market
Chinese pig population grows by millions
Exports to China in 2017 are no longer what they were last year. Demand is not expected to pick up again in 2018. Why not?
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The Chinese sow herd will record growth figures again in 2018 for the first time in 6 years, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects. Between 2012 and 2017, the pig herd shrank by 55 million to approximately 420 million pigs. In 2018, a growth of 27 pigs and sows is expected. According to the USDA, the pork cycle in China is moving from contraction to growth.
27
million
Integrations are growing
The larger pig integrations in particular are driving growth. The shrinkage of so-called 'backyard farms' continues as the Chinese government continues to tighten environmental regulations. In 2018, the growth in integrations exceeded the shrinkage of backyard farms for the first time.
The growth ambitions are driven by good pig prices. In 2016, the pig price in China was historically high. At its peak (July 2016), the quotation for live pigs amounted to €2,83 per kilo. At times the margin even exceeded $100 per pig. At the end of September, prices are more moderate, with a quotation of €1,88 per kilo.
Less imports
The USDA expects China to import 2018 million tons of pork in 1,60. Compared to record year 2016, this is a shrinkage of 23%. The mutual struggle to gain a foothold will mainly be between Europe, the United States and Canada. The level of the pig price determines the distribution of volumes.