Will Brexit endanger agricultural exports?

Even after Brexit, the United Kingdom (UK) will continue to import meat, vegetables, fruit and potatoes from Europe. Demand may, however, shift to cheaper products.

ABN Amro expresses this expectation in the report 'Brexit from a British food perspective'. The British now get a quarter of their food from the European Union (EU). This is because they have a low degree of self-sufficiency in vegetables (55%) and fruit (20%). The UK is also heavily dependent on third parties in meat. The Netherlands is the most important food supplier for the British.

especially pork
About 10% of Dutch Agri and Food exports go to the UK. There are major differences between the sectors. For example, 16% of Dutch meat exports are destined for the United Kingdom. Pork (bacon) is especially popular. The export value of Dutch (pork) meat is approximately €600 million annually. The export of dairy to the UK, on ​​the other hand, is of minor importance.

The bank does not expect Brexit to affect export volumes, as the British produce only 54% of their food themselves. It is possible, however, that British consumers will adopt a different (cheaper) food pattern in the future.

End of export growth
In the first 8 months of this year, food prices rose by approximately 2%. This is due to the weakening pound and the strengthening euro. This has put an end to the long-standing increase in Dutch food imports.

In the future, trade will be strongly determined by trade tariffs. The bank thinks it is still too early to speculate about this. However, the bank expects that the floriculture sector will be more affected by future import duties than the export of vegetables or meat.

ABN Amro advises Dutch food exporters to invest proactively in their British relations, so that mutual relations can take a beating. 

Click here to read the full report. 

Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is editor-in-chief of Boerenbusiness. He also focuses on dairy, pig and meat markets. He also follows (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.

w.baan@boerenbusiness. Nl

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