Pork rights price is unpredictable

When it was announced last week that the POR Control would disappear, the rights market was shaken up. According to Paul Donkers of AgriPunt, there was a brief revival of demand. The price of pig rights (south region) then rose a few percent to €135 per right. Donkers: "The air that was in the market at the time has now gone again." Donkers says that the revival was based on a wafer-thin market, in which only a handful of transactions were made.

According to Donkers, it is impossible to predict which direction the price of pig rights will take. "This is highly dependent on how Brabant pig farmers will respond to the government's restructuring plans. Emotions often predominate in the trade." Even though the rights are expensive, there is a chance that pig farmers will still buy rights, Donkers estimates. However, the market can turn 180 degrees if pig farmers wait until the restructuring plans take shape. "It's completely unpredictable."

Scarcity in the South region
According to Theo Snetselaar, animal rights trader from Lunteren, more trade took place this summer than is now the case. Snetselaar: "Pig farmers are currently waiting for what is to come." In the other region, rights are traded for €80 to €85 per right. At a fraction above that, trade takes place in the eastern region. There is significantly more scarcity in the south region, with a price level of approximately €130 per right.

A trader from the south confirms Donkers' story and says that prices in the south region have fallen again since this week. However, he does not expect a new price revival. The reasons for this are simple: Hardly any new stables are being built and yields in pig farming are declining. According to this trader, €125 per right is now a market price at which business is done. The prices in the other regions correspond to Snetselaar's statements. Donkers also mentions such amounts.  

Lease rights will decrease
There are currently sufficient leasing rights available with regard to the pig supply. This results in prices in the south region of around €6,50 per unit, according to Snetselaar. According to Donkers, the market is €1 above that. In other and eastern areas, according to Snetselaar, €2 to €3 is paid per lease right.

Donkers also mentions these amounts. Donkers expects that the price of leasing rights in the other and eastern regions will drop until Christmas, because there are more rights than animals. Donkers does provide a stable lease price in the south.