Countus Arable Farm Index
Arable farmer ends worst year since 2004
Data from the Countus Arable Farm Index shows that Dutch arable farmers have had their worst year in 13 years. Only during the year of birth of the barometer did the index drop even further. The cause is a combination of several factors.
The year 2016 was above average for arable farmers at the start and the end. A profit was made especially in the second half. From week 39 onwards, the index rose above the 5-year average. However, 2017 shows a different picture. The result started to deflect downwards in the last 2 months of 2016. That reduction is the Countus Arable Farm Index never really got over it.
seasoning
Overall, 2017 scored below the 5-year average. There was an uptick for a while, between week 23 and week 27. Then the index shot up, after an earlier fall from 67,3 to 87,2 points.
Then it had to hand in something step by step. This is mainly due to the development of the April contract for French fries potatoes on the futures market. It is one of the most important trendsetters in the Arable Farming Index.
All time low
Only the beginning year of the arable barometer turned out even worse. From week 25, week after week, the index scored a result that is below that of 2017. That mood lasted until week 17 of 2005, with a score of 44.2 being the absolute lowest point in its 13-year history. The index is not that bad yet.
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The Countus Arable Farm Index scored below average throughout the year.One can guess what underlies the meager result in 2017. Onion prices, for example, moved at a relatively low level. During the growing season, the potato futures market briefly pulled the reins, only to go into free fall. The market for fodder wheat has also been calm.
Role of seed potatoes
The 2017 Arable Farming Index requires additional explanation. Especially in the first half of the season, it is often the price of seed potatoes that is a plus. In week 17, a switch is made to the new season, which means that a decrease is almost always noticeable. The stock exchange listing of Bintje seed potatoes is used as a reference.
The seed potato price of both 35-45 millimeters and 28-35 millimeters rose to absolute record highs. In week 5 of 2017, the first week of February, Bintje 35-45 recorded a price of €150 per 100 kilos and 28-35 a price of €102,50. After week 14, there was more than a halving, to €51 and €31 per 100 kilos for both sizes.
Decreasing acreage
The Countus Arable Farm Index looks at the 5 most important arable crops: ware and seed potatoes, seed onions, wheat, and sugar beet to arrive at an index. The market price is weighed against the acreage and the hectare yield.
For Bintje seed potatoes, this importance decreases every year. The acreage amounted to 2017 hectares in 800, compared to more than 3.000 hectares at the start of the Arable Farming Index. This correction has been made retroactively to calculate the index figure. This means that the seed potato price has less control over the movement of the Arable Farm Index.
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The price of Bintje seed potatoes reached a record. However, the acreage is declining.Result not final
The acreage for ware potatoes, seed onions and sugar beet is increasing. Grain also has to leave something. This affects the index. Statistics Netherlands figures for the areas and kilo yields are used to calculate the index. However, the current figures, for the 2017 harvest, are not yet the final figures.
The price of sugar beet for the 2017 harvest is also not yet known. As a result, minor changes may take place afterwards. If the beet price turns out to be lower than €44,20 per tonne in 2016, the Arable Farming Index will have another blow to deal with.
Niels van der Boom
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