'Dutch exports suffer from hard Brexit'

Even after Brexit, the United Kingdom (UK) will remain an important market for the Dutch agricultural sector. However, a hard Brexit does have consequences for Dutch exports. This is shown by research by Wageningen Economic Research (WUR).

The WUR report shows that the UK is an important market for Dutch agricultural products. In addition, quite a few imported raw materials are sold to British customers after processing in the Netherlands. The research shows that in 2017 the UK accounted for about 9% of total Dutch agricultural exports.

Impact of Brexit
In the study, WUR estimates the impact of Brexit on the agricultural trade position of the Netherlands. In the case of a so-called 'soft Brexit', the impact will not be that great, because no import tariffs will be introduced. The Dutch export volumes to the UK and the rest of the world will therefore not change much in this scenario.

On the other hand, a so-called 'hard Brexit' will certainly have consequences for the Netherlands. In this scenario it is necessary to fall back on the agreements within the WTO (World Trade Organisation) and trade will be hindered by import tariffs and higher trade costs. The research shows that exports from the Netherlands to the UK will then decrease significantly.

However, Brexit is not very negative for all sectors. For example, pork exports to the UK will increase in the event of a hard Brexit. This is due to the price competitiveness of the Dutch supply on the British market and to the stronger price reactions of production (and exports) in other EU Member States.

Decrease in export value
On balance, the total export value of the Dutch agricultural sector (after a hard Brexit) will fall. It means that the agricultural production value will fall by 2%, which amounts to a decrease of €500 million. This decrease is mainly caused by lower prices as a result of price pressure on the European market. That price pressure stems from the fact that trade with the UK is being disrupted by Brexit.  

View the full report here.

Kimberly Baker

Kimberly Bakker is an all-round editor at Boerenbusiness. She also has an eye for the social media channels of Boerenbusiness.

k.baker @boerenbusiness. Nl

© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.