'Protein crops (such as soybeans) have enormous potential', argued Ruud Tijssens, Director of Public & Cooperative Affairs at Agrifirm, on Saturday 2 June at the NAV anniversary. There are also positive expectations for the grain price.
Tijssens sees protein crops as a good alternative to grains. He therefore expects that more will be grown in the coming years. "This has to do, among other things, with the GMO-free soy policy of the European Union (EU)." Tijssens mentioned that the price of GMO-free raw materials from abroad is about €300 to €350 per tonne. In the Netherlands, however, Paid €529 per tonne.
The higher price is because they are supplied to the food industry, which has a high demand for regional proteins. The fact that less meat is eaten contributes to this. Tijssens concluded that protein cultivation will become important for arable farmers, but according to him this can only be beneficial. "It's also good for crop rotation." Also due to the binding advice of the Commission on land-relatedness the demand for regional raw materials will increase.
Increasing demand
Tijssens also painted a rosy picture regarding the demand for biomass (food and animal feed). The total demand for biomass will probably increase from 40 million tons to 80 to 125 million tons in 2050, while the expected production remains at a maximum of 25 million tons.
It means that demand will exceed expected production. While the policy is to purchase more regional raw materials. Tijssens: "If we ever want to be circular, the arable farming sector remains extremely important." That is why Agrifirm is in its CSR report emphasizes once again that at least 10.000 hectares of soy will have to be grown in the Netherlands. In 2017, the area was still 400 hectares.
In the context of the high demand for biomass, it is therefore irresponsible to sacrifice arable land to, for example, solar panels, says Tijssens. "We have to ask ourselves very carefully what we are going to use the land for."
Rising grain price
In addition to the good expectations for the cultivation of protein crops, there are also good expectations for the wheat price, according to Bert Smit, researcher at Wageningen University. Smit showed that the grain price has fallen extremely over the last 100 years. In 1908 the grain price was still around $700 per ton, but by 2008 this had fallen to $120 per ton. This cannot only be explained by lower costs.
However, the expectations for the prices are cautiously positive. According to Smit, the wheat price will approach €2025 per tonne in 188, an increase of €3 per tonne per year. Smit cites increasing demand as the reason for this, partly due to an increasing world population.
Climate change
Climate change can also reduce the area of available land due to large-scale erosion of agricultural land worldwide. In addition, climate change can cause lower yields per hectare. These factors may reduce the wheat supply. Rising demand from outside the EU (caused by higher milk, pig and poultry production abroad) will also support the grain price.
The researcher also expects a price increase on the sugar market. According to Smit, the price could rise from €359 per tonne now to €403 per tonne in 2025, an increase of about €5,50 per tonne per year. However, there are also factors that put pressure on the sugar price, such as the abolition of sugar the sugar quota and declining demand.