Analysis Countus Arable Farm Index
Potato market lets Index fluctuate
It is the price on the potato futures market that causes the Countus Arable Farm Index to fluctuate over October. A dip in the price of the April contract is immediately noticeable in the Index. The preliminary harvest estimate of Statistics Netherlands also has an impact on the figures.
At the end of October, CBS published the preliminary revenue figures for ware potatoes, onions and sugar beet. This confirms what the sector already suspected. The yields are well below the level of 2017. The potato harvest drops from almost 4 million to 3 million tons (23% less) and the onions go back from 1,5 million to 811.000 tons (44% less).
Until September, the arable index with the yield of 2017, at current prices. That gives a wrong picture. The new figures mean that the Index has declined an average of 25 to 26 points, retroactively.
Potato Futures Market
The Index reached its provisional high in week 40, with a price of 127,8 points. With the old yield figures, the price would have come out at 154,7 points. Subsequently, between Week 41 and Week 43, the Index declined significantly. The direct cause for this is the April contract on the potato futures market. At the beginning of October, the price dropped from €30,80 per 100 kilos to €28,80. The lowest point in the month. In the last days of October, the price makes up for it again (€29,90). This also brings the Index back to 127,7 points.
With regard to the prices of fodder wheat and seed onions (30% to 60% coarse) there is little exciting to report. From mid-October these had to slow down, which exacerbated the decline in the Index. The Emmeloord stock exchange quotation for onions is now at €27 per 100 kilos and EU feed wheat is quoted at €21,40 per 100 kilos.
Sugar beets
There is still 1 uncertain factor in the pipeline for the Arable Farming Index and that is sugar beet. Statistics Netherlands calculates the yield is 13% lower (to 6,9 million tons). In the current forecast, Cosun assumes 13,5 tons of sugar per hectare. The guaranteed minimum price is €32,50 per tonne of beets, but growers don't expect much more. The producer writes red numbers for the first time in its history.
Niels van der Boom
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