Growth of the Dutch livestock and agricultural exports does not seem feasible in the implementation of the circular vision of Minister Carola Schouten (Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality). In fact, it is not inconceivable that 25% of the livestock will disappear in this view.
At least the above is apparent from various scenario sketches by Wageningen University & Research (WUR). minister Schouten states, however, that it had no influence on how these scenario sketches were drawn up.
Exports are leveling off
The Dutch export figures were traditionally presented at the Grüne Woche in Berlin. In 2018, another record established, although growth is leveling off considerably. With Schouten's circular vision, in which local and regional crops should be given a boost, there is a growing fear within the business community that exports will come under further pressure in the coming years.
The WUR researchers also asked themselves this question, and therefore drew up various scenarios to visualize the consequences of the implementation of circular agriculture. They assumed 3 possible scenarios: closing the cycle on a global scale, European scale or national scale.
1. Global cycle is practically difficult
Closing the cycles on a global scale is based on the transport of minerals (via processed manure) to the countries where feed production takes place. In this scenario, the livestock can theoretically remain at its current size and production and export value should therefore be able to remain at least at the current level.
The cycle must then be closed with various technical solutions: processing manure and exporting it in various forms. This is certainly possible, according to several studies. However, for the total number of tonnages required it is far from reality. The techniques must match the market demand from other countries, which is currently far from being the case in all areas.
2. European cycle means 25% less livestock
A second scenario is closing the cycle at European level. In that case, the import of animal feed (protein-containing components) from outside Europe will be discontinued. It must then be examined to what extent protein-rich crop cultivation in the European Union and Ukraine can fill that gap.
Using rough estimates, the researchers arrive at a decrease of 37%, which is a significant decrease in the number of protein-rich raw materials available for the animal feed industry. With a slightly different composition of the available ration, this results in a forced shrinkage of about 25% of the current livestock. Also the export value will come under considerable pressure in this scenario.
3. National closure is the end of pig farming
The third scenario outlines the situation in which the cycles are closed at national level. The animal feed must all be grown domestically and the manure must be placed on Dutch soils. The researchers show that pig farming completely disappears from the Netherlands in this scenario.
In addition, the WUR researchers expect the poultry and cattle sector to halve. In this scenario, exports are made, but the quantities are marginal.
Vision to the House of Representatives in May
These scenario sketches are 'just' a thinking document, but of course they did not come out at the same time as the export figures for 2018. Schouten stated in Berlin that the scenarios are purely the choice of the researchers. However, it is illogical to think that she was completely unaware of it. The minister said that he was convinced that she would be able to present her completed vision to the House of Representatives in May. She draws up this together with various parties and the WUR is part of it.
When asked to what extent Schouten's vision actually turns out to be her vision and not one that she will soon pull her hands off because the agricultural sector actually fills it in itself, she reacted irritated. "I consciously choose to take up this vision and the transition that results from it with the sector."
Shrinkage is a loaded word
Schouten added that, together with the representatives from the agribusiness, she is in the process of arriving at a vision and approach. According to her, this should also be a vision that she supports from her position and her responsibility. However, a scenario sketch in which there is room for serious growth of the Dutch livestock and export value does not seem to have been designed yet.
There is no indication that this option is being seriously explored. The minister is not likely to use the word 'shrinkage' (given the political oversight), but many signals indicate that she wants to trade for a larger share of feed from Europe. In that case it also appears that a shrinkage of the livestock is inevitable. Even if this will probably be presented as a result of the new vision called circular agriculture.