ABN Amro also expects solid exports in 2020

The export of Dutch food products grew by an average of 2019% in 5. ABN Amro expects that higher demand from abroad to last this year. Challenges are mainly on the supply side.

According to the recent sector forecast of ABN Amro, the export value of meat rose the most last year, more than 7%. This is the direct result of the outbreaks of African swine fever, making pork shortages available worldwide. The Dutch export value of pork is estimated to have increased by 2019% in 30. The higher demand, especially from China, will also result in higher export figures in 2020 and 2021, the bank expects.

Growth in spending
In addition to meat, the export value of other foodstuffs also increased last year. Fresh vegetables, including potatoes, increased by approximately 11% to €7,2 billion. Growth in dairy products, on the other hand, was very limited. Dairy buyer Germany was still good for a 5% plus, but exports to countries such as China, France and the United Kingdom shrank. The quantities increased more than the value, because the price lagged somewhat.

ABN Amro expects a further increase in exports for the next two years. The bank bases this on growing consumer spending in a number of important markets. In Germany, this is about 1% growth in 2020 and 1,3% in 2021. The British are expected to spend 1,2% more in 2020 and 2% in 2021.

Less milk and pigs
The comment that the bank makes mainly concerns the production side. At the end of 2019, for example, no fewer than 17 percent of farmers saw the shortage of personnel as a serious obstacle in their business operations. The shortage of business successors is also a growing problem across the sector. Furthermore, the cattle and dairy sectors face limited growth opportunities as a result of the nitrogen measures.

Now that the measures have not yet fully crystallized, a stabilization of the milk supply is expected in 2020 and a contraction of 2% in 2021. A contraction is also expected in pig farming due to stricter regulations, the stop scheme and warm remediation. ABN Amro estimates a 3% decline in the pig population in 2020 and a further 7% in 2021.

Jeanette Pennings

Jeannet has her roots in the flower bulb sector and she grew up on an agricultural company in the northern part of North Holland. As a generalist she reports for Boerenbusiness across all sectors. She is also exploring the possibilities of sponsored advertising.

j.pennings@boerenbusiness. Nl

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