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Climate study: Arable farming gives way to livestock farming

20 April 2020 - Niels van der Boom - 14 comments

Less arable land will become available for the cultivation of vegetable crops, in order to compensate for the emissions in livestock farming. That is a conclusion from the climate plan that Minister Schouten (Agriculture, Nature and Fisheries) sent to the House on 17 April. BO Akkerbouw is critical and makes the necessary comments.

At the request of the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, Wageningen University has scenario studies carried out for the Dutch agricultural sector in the year 2050. BO Akkerbouw is critical of the elaboration of this, because arable farming suffers, or so it thinks.

100.000 hectares less
In 2017, the acreage of arable land amounted to 600.000 hectares, the study calculates. An area of ​​more than 2050 hectares is estimated for 500.000. In the most 'negative' scenario, this is 200.000 hectares, when the focus is mainly on nature. The acreage of forest in this scenario is 400.000 hectares, which is mainly at the expense of the acreage of grassland.

The concept studies undermine the possibilities for circular agriculture, because, for example, a large part of the animal feed will still be imported, and not produced within the Netherlands. BO Akkerbouw would like to see more room for the so-called protein transition. Collaboration between dairy farmers and arable farmers also becomes more difficult in the scenarios, because grassland can no longer be used as arable land. That puts the sector in a bind, it concludes.

Yield increase
In their report, the Wageningen researchers take into account a 30% increase in yield for arable crops in 2050. At the same time, lower phosphate application standards are proposed, which actually depletes the soil, the BO thinks. "Every farmer knows that this leads to exhaustion."

Crop production is to be reduced in the plans to allow forest planting on arable land. This is necessary to compensate for the emissions from livestock farming. BO Akkerbouw doubts this statement and says it is disappointed in the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality. Only limited attention is given in the report to plant protein production and other nutritional trends. The generation of sustainable energy is also not included.

Making good use of the best grounds
Vice-chairman Jaap van Wenum says in a press release that the practice is different. The arable acreage is growing and expanding. He emphasizes the importance of striving for climate neutrality across Europe. "It is important to use the most fertile land for food production. It is better to use land that is difficult to cultivate in Europe for planting forests."

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Niels van der Boom

Niels van der Boom is a senior market specialist for arable crops at DCA Market Intelligence. He mainly makes analyses and market updates about the potato market. In columns he shares his sharp view on the arable sector and technology.
Comments
14 comments
m van der Ploeg 20 April 2020
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url=http://www.boerenbusiness.nl/ artikel/10886798/climate study-arable farming-wijkt-voor-veehouderij]Climate study: Arable farming gives way to livestock farming[/url]
Ministry of Natural Monuments.
Where would Wageningen get its money from?
Yield increase of 30% for arable crops in 2050.
I'm curious who still takes these kind of cries seriously.
Of course, every now and then you have to publish something humorous.
Subscriber
quite rude 20 April 2020
Must be a yield drop of at least 30% because by then we will all be forced to grow organically.
Thon 20 April 2020
The forests just cost a lot of money. It yields nothing.
A very large part has been severely neglected! And then give that good agricultural land to it! They don't deserve a square meter!
Do you have to go into the future with such people? Talk less nonsense and perform more!
IJsselmeer clay 20 April 2020
Still strange that you stumble on the internet about the messages where trees are cut down in the Netherlands for all sorts of reasons and almost all on government land/property and that it is suggested here to plant more trees.

The Ministry of Natural Monuments indeed as already mentioned above.
Can the food be imported from 2050 just like the mouth caps, sigh.
Subscriber
Also a farmer 20 April 2020
This means that in 2050 the Netherlands will no longer be counted among the countries that help to feed the world population. And that a predominant role for livestock farming in the Netherlands is being chosen over the cultivation of plant-based food. Weird twists and turns.

On the one hand, the scientists claim that a temperature warming awaits us, whereby we have to take into account a long drought and thus yield loss, and this research talks about a yield increase of thirty percent. This way you can do eighty studies, all with a different approach. Wasted money.
John Lapwing 20 April 2020
The proof is provided 1% that the throats of primary companies are gently squeezed by horse and carriage minister Schouten all successors are better off looking for an agricultural-friendly country
baby 20 April 2020
We will see in 10-15 years then there will be no livestock farms, so there will only be arable farming and forests.
Skirt 20 April 2020
The minister lives in a completely different world, reality has completely disappeared from the horizon.
Ron 21 April 2020
Without manure we get zero on the bill. If we want more from the ground, we have to go back to more shit
rule maker 21 April 2020
They want to get rid of all farmers, only Oostvaardersplassen states, that's the plan
Subscriber
Best 21 April 2020
"It is important to use the most fertile land for food production. It is better to use land that is difficult to cultivate in Europe for planting forests." then on the basis of the Brabant landscape we can drive on good black earths again because they dig it here because they want to go back to 1800 and then we talk in a co2 era I no longer believe in this nonsense it is happening here in the Netherlands but for one thing farmers own a lot of property and that has to go! if everyone keeps their feet up, nothing will happen
Chief O 21 April 2020
In retrospect, it did not become a Ministry of Agriculture, after all,
Deeply sad, what the Dutch farmers have built up in years by seeing what should have been your helmsman being demolished with the law in hand.
“Mrs. Schouten, we really have the wrong one in you”
ps 22 April 2020
Don't fall for it It's a (pitfall) pitfall this devious dubious ministry does it consciously to play the sectors off against each other that there is no longer an agricultural unit, and can act as a unit to represent interests and stand up for all sectors, and the robbery has free game, don't give the robbery a chance as a unit we are more mans
Subscriber
AJ van Woerkom 22 April 2020
Have been to the ministry many times over the past 15 years and have been in contact with various officials through the media. Talk, talk and talk some more. Explain how to get out of the resulting, undesirable situation. Also contributed to the implementation of Carola's ambitions, the vision statement. When I made proposals, they were tested for feasibility with people in the field and scientists from various institutes went through them. Tested in practice all over the world with clear results. It was always stated that the ministry would look into it. After a long time, I did not receive a clear explanation of why people did not want to participate. It repeatedly gave me a special feeling, a double agenda??
If you want to solve a problem, you have to start from cause and effect and tackle the cause. How can it be that NOBODY at the ministry realizes this. Or do other interests play a greater role?
Now when I look at how much funding is being allocated and foresee the outcome, and I'm not the only one and not the least of them, I predict that in 2-5 or 10 years we'll be at the point where the PAS was fired, purely on substantive results.
I have repeatedly told and substantively demonstrated that agriculture can solve its problems, but that must be organized and will cost less than the money that is currently being earmarked.
Indicate in keywords where we can place the solutions.
The nitrogen problem. The phosphate problem. The CO2 problem. The air, soil, groundwater, surface water load, humus content, biodiversity in and on the soil, and to top it all off, a healthy soil means demonstrably healthier food resulting in healthier people. Valuable people now very topical. A professor from a medical school predicted healthier food has the potential to save 20 to 50% health care costs. Nutrients in its natural balance make our organs healthy and make a healthy body.
Be aware that there are 5 scientists from different institutes who endorse these views and want to provide the scientific basis.
All this is known to Carola and her officials but no response?

I was brought up with respect for everyone, certainly don't blow out of school. I think the proper thing has broken through the ministry and Carola's promise to come and sit at the table with me one day.
Civil servants, ministries and the government are there for us in the sector, society, and the citizen. What does that show when you feel cheated, abused and always at your own expense.

The trust in Carola of Christian origin, our government has fallen far below zero, being abused does not feel good. I'm always in to help another, from a social point of view, that's what I miss in Carola and our government.

Let's go back to the research that is used for the policy steps.

What was the assignment WUR received from the ministry for the scenario studies? Who will bring it to the table?
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