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News MARS report

Drought still leaves no trace through harvest forecast

28 April 2020 - Thomas Doornbos

Weather dominates in the April MARS report. Dry conditions reign in Western Europe, after it had one of the wettest winters on record. The winter crops are still in good condition. The dry weather does have a negative effect on the sowing of summer crops.

The European Commission's MARS report shows that COVID-19 has little impact on the sowing of summer crops. Until now, sufficient seed, fertilizers and crop protection products were available. The coronavirus will therefore not lead to delays in the spring. The predictions in the April report are mainly based on historical data. This makes the situation uncertain, especially with the rain shortage that large parts of Europe are confronted with.

Change in rye
This uncertainty does not lead to major changes in revenue forecasts from the March report. Actually, the only notable change can be found in rye. This yield is expected to be 2,1% higher than last month and now stands at an expected yield of 3,92 tons per hectare. This is 6% higher than the 5-year average yield of rye. There is virtually no change in the expected total yield of wheat and barley. This is projected to average 5,65 and 5,87 tonnes per hectare respectively in the European Union.

Negative effects of drought
The drought has a negative effect on crop development. The dry weather in spring ensures that the top layer of the soil has dried out considerably. Precipitation is of course necessary for good crop development for the cereals sown in the spring and the plots sown late.

A yield forecast for potatoes and sugar beets was also made in the April report. The European Commission expects an average potato yield of 34,2 tons per hectare in the European Union. This yield forecast is 5,6% higher than the 5-year average.

For sugar beet, the expected yield is 75,9 tons per hectare. This is one tonne per hectare higher than the 5-year average. In the main sugar beet production areas (France, Benelux, eastern England and Germany), sowing has gone well without major obstacles. In most regions, sowing started in the latter part of March; Germany was a little later and started sowing in April.

Due to the dry conditions, sowing has proved to be a challenge. Mainly on the clay soils, sowing on the hard and dry clay soil was not easy. Some farmers have therefore decided to solve this problem by irrigating. Planting the potatoes runs into the same problem. However, the planting activities have been slightly delayed as a result and will probably continue well into May, the report says.

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