'Food industry continues to grow'

While turnover in the food industry remained stable in 2020, Rabobank foresees a growth of 1% for this year and 2022% for 2. This means that the turnover of the food business this year is above the level of 2019.  

The beverage industry shrank -9% last year. Growth of 2021% and 2022% respectively is expected for 5 and 7. The beverage industry will not rise above 2022 levels until 2019. Rabobank today published a series of studies.

The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 3,8% this year and 3,7% next year. Gross domestic product is likely to return to pre-coronavirus levels in the third quarter of this year – faster than in other European countries. Not all sectors will recover this year and some will not recover next year, such as the hospitality industry.

Against the background of a strong recovery in the economy, concerns are growing about the development of the average price level, or inflation. "We expect inflation to be higher than last year, but to remain relatively limited. For 2021 we expect 1,8% followed by 1,7% in 2022," said the economists. 

Shortages of raw materials slow down industry growth
The industry recovered from the corona crisis faster than expected and is likely to grow next year, according to Rabobank. "This is evidenced by, among other things, rising producer confidence and increasing production." However, the bank's industry managers expect that shortages of raw materials and rising raw material prices will slow growth. 

Trade: a decline in food
The trade sector is benefiting from the gradual opening up of society and the associated economic recovery, but within the sector the differences are large. Rabobank expects a decline in 2020 for the sectors that did very well in 2021, such as food and the residential-related non-food sectors.

Supermarkets saw sales rise 7% last year. This year Rabobank expects a decrease of -3% and next year a decrease of 1%. Food stores grew 6% last year. A contraction of -5% is expected this year and a contraction of -1% next year. Food wholesalers grew 2020% in 0. Rabobank expects 3% turnover growth this year and next.

Wholesale agricultural products, which grew 2020% in turnover in 11, are expected to contract by -4% this year. Next year Rabobank foresees a growth of 2% again. Online retail continues to grow strongly and is gaining market share from offline. This underlines the need for players to digitize, according to Rabobank.

Restaurants will completely overcome the crisis in 2022
Rabobank expects a strong recovery in the hospitality and recreation sector in the second half of this year. "Whereas restaurants and holiday parks will be completely over the crisis by 2022, we expect this not to apply to hotels. This is mainly because business tourism will not recover quickly. In addition, catering continues to be hindered by more structural working from home." This combination ensures that the entire catering and recreation sector will not have recovered by 2022. The number of bankruptcies will increase, partly due to the very limited number in the past year and the accumulated debt positions.

© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.