Inside milk
New Zealand banks forecast record milk price
New Zealand dairy farmers can look forward to record milk prices this production season. A price that is even higher than in the peak year 2013/2014. This is what analysts of various New Zealand banks expect.
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They base their expectations on the still tense dairy market, the results of the latest GDT auction en the latest milk supply figures, which are more than 4% below last year's level.
The record milk price is now NZ $8,40 per kilo of dry matter in milk (Milk Solids), which converts to €39,30 per 100 kilos. This price was paid more than 7 years ago.
For now, Fonterra is betting on a maximum price of NZ $8,75 - or €40,90 per 100 kilos. Until recently, this was seen as the absolute top of the market, but now the ABS Bank is also adjusting its own forecast to NZ $8,75 per kilo as the expected payout price. The Westpac Bank previously mentioned an expected milk price of NZ $8,50 (€39,78 per 100 kilos).
Rabobank cautious
Only Rabobank did not participate in issuing increasingly higher expected prices. Last month, the bank even lowered the expected milk price to NZ $7,80, or €36,50 per 100 kilos. The bank's analysts were concerned about the large Chinese stocks of milk powder, which had apparently been purchased but not yet consumed. Rabobank has not yet issued a new expected price for this month.