News CBS
GDP higher than before corona, but uncertainty remains
The economy grew 1,9% last quarter compared to the second quarter. This shows an initial calculation by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Gross domestic product (GDP) was 5% higher in the third quarter than a year earlier and is higher than before the corona crisis for the first time. "In a normal situation you would speak of a boom. But we are not in a normal situation," said chief economist Peter Hein van Mulligen. "That the economy is doing well is good news, but uncertainty remains."
At the start of the corona pandemic, expectations were that the Dutch economy could shrink by as much as 10%, Van Mulligen recalls. "We are seven quarters further and are again above the pre-corona level. The consequences for the economy are not over yet, but the fact that we would be above the old level so quickly can only be seen as a windfall."
Agriculture
"Agriculture is a separate branch and less sensitive to fluctuations in the economy. That sector has been growing for some time," says Van Mulligen. This does not alter the fact that some sectors within the agricultural sector have been affected. "Think of potatoes", the chief economist indicates. "It is not for nothing that special support measures have been taken for this." The added value of the agricultural sector has grown by 1,4% compared to the second quarter. Compared to a year ago, this is a growth of 2,5%.
The economy has done surprisingly well. And the impact of the measures was less than expected, says Van Mulligen. That gives hope for the coming period, now that we are in a 'light lockdown' again and the catering industry and shops have to close earlier. "But it's too early to predict consequences." The support measures are also now being phased out. "All in all, there remains uncertainty in this quarter," says Van Mulligen.
Household consumption
The economic growth in the third quarter is mainly due to an increase in household consumption (+3,8%). Government consumption increased by 0,7%. However, investments fell by 2,7%. Exports and imports of goods and services increased by 1,3% and 1,6% respectively. Compared to two years ago, the economy was 2,3% larger in the third quarter. This is due to the trade balance and government consumption.
Consumers spent about 5% more in the third quarter than in the third quarter of last year. In particular, they spent more on catering, recreation and culture, transport and communication and clothing. Government consumption was about 2,2% higher than a year earlier. This is mainly due to the extra expenditure on covid-19 testing and vaccination by the GGDs.
Gross domestic product was 5% higher in the third quarter of this year than twelve months previously. The sectors 'trade, transport and hospitality', 'business services' and 'government, education and care' in particular contributed to the quarter-on-quarter increase in GDP. Construction and industry had a negative effect. Investments in fixed assets grew by 2,3% in the past quarter. More was invested in machines and housing. Investments in software and R&D were also higher than one year previously. Investments in passenger cars, however, were considerably lower.
Export
Exports of goods and services were 7,2% higher in the third quarter than twelve months previously. Re-exports grew by almost 11%. The volume of goods exports was 5,3% higher in September than the same month last year. More chemical and metal products were exported. Compared to September 2019, exports were 6,5% higher. The volume of imports was 8,1% higher in September this year than in September 2020 and 9,8% higher than in September 2019.
According to the CBS Export Radar, conditions for exports in November are less favorable than in September. This is mainly because in the Export Radar the growth of German industrial production turned into a contraction.
Fewer unemployed
In the third quarter, 294.000 people were unemployed, 3,1% of the labor force. Compared to the second quarter of 2021, the number of unemployed fell by 13.000. Unemployment fell for the fourth consecutive quarter. Despite the decline, the level in the third quarter was even higher than before the corona crisis, with 277.000 unemployed in the first quarter of 2020.
Linda van Eekeres
© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.
