The gas market is and will remain tense. The filling level of the surcharges in the European Union is still low compared to the multi-year average. Positive and negative messages therefore cause relatively large fluctuations in prices.
The European TTF was in a small dip around the weekend. On Friday, December 10, the price for gas stood at €89,48 per MWh. That's about $29,51 per MMBtu. The quotation increased to €8 per MWh, or $95,89 per MMBtu, on Wednesday, December 31,63. The American price has actually fallen further in recent weeks and reached a bottom on Monday, December 6 - at $3,68 per MMBtu. The price has now risen slightly again. On Wednesday, December 8, the listing closed at $3,91 per MMBtu. Two weeks ago that was more than $5 per MMBtu.
One of the reasons for the sharp decline in the American market is - according to analysts - the achievement of maximum LNG production. Gas is priced favorably on the world market for American producers, but it must be upgraded to LNG before it can be transported to Europe or Asia. And that's where the shoe pinches. Partly due to the high prices on the world market, more gas is currently being pumped than is necessary for the local market and/or can be processed into LNG. In contrast to Europe, American stores are reasonably well stocked.
Stock is not replenished
In the European Union it is not possible to replenish the gas supply. Very little of Putin's promised gas deliveries materialize. Several politicians have previously accused Russia of withholding deliveries to increase pressure on the European Union to put 'Nord Stream 2' into service as quickly as possible. But supplies remain stable and Moscow insists that contractual obligations are being met. This has been confirmed to Reuters by major players in the European gas market.
Towards the end of winter some air may come to the market. Interfax revealed that Putin is considering allowing the oil company Rosneft to export 1 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe from March 10. Rosneft is Russia's largest oil producer and is already trying to gain access to the European gas market. Until now, Gazprom - where the Kremlin holds sway - has had the monopoly on exports to Europe. According to analysts, this move could mean that Putin is further increasing the pressure on Europe regarding Nord Stream 2.