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Strong economic recovery in 2021, but gray cloud remains
The economy grew by 4,8% last year, according to the first calculation by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). This is enough to make up for the contraction of 2020. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew 0,8% compared to 2020 and 1,2% compared to 2019. Despite the strong recovery and the tight labor market, there is a gray cloud over the Dutch economy, according to chief economist Peter Hein van Mulligen.
There was a strong recovery, but growth slowed in the fourth quarter compared to the previous two quarters. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0,9% in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. The economy grew by 3,8% in the second quarter and 2,1% in the third quarter. The slowdown in the economy is mainly due to the lockdown in mid-December. The economic growth is mainly due to an increase in investment and the trade balance. Government consumption also increased.
Economic growth in the countries around us averaged 5%. Van Mulligen states that it seems that our growth rate is disappointing compared to other countries, but that is not entirely true. "In 2020 we shrank less sharply than the other countries. The Netherlands was already at pre-corona level in the third quarter." The economies of Germany and the United Kingdom have not yet recovered.
Agriculture grows slightly
Manufacturing production was at record levels. The added value grew by 7,2% (+4,5% compared to 2019). The machine, metal and chemical industries in particular contributed to this. Construction grew by 2,4% (+1,5% compared to 2019). The value added of the agricultural sector increased in 2021 compared to both 2020 and 2019. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew 0,8% compared to 2020 and 1,2% compared to the pre-corona year 2019. In the fourth quarter there was a modest contraction of 0,4% compared to the third quarter, explains Van Mulligen Boerenbusiness.
The decreased demand from China for meat products plays a role in this. Agriculture is also less sensitive to the economic cycle than other sectors, but it does suffer from inflation due to higher energy prices, the chief economist indicates. Fruit and vegetables have already become more expensive in the past, the inflation figures for January also show that bread and dairy products such as cheese and cottage cheese are becoming more expensive.
In December, consumers spent 4,5% more than in December 2020, reports the statistical office. They mainly spent more on services and durable goods. Compared to December 2019, consumers spent 7,7% less in December 2021. In November, more was consumed than two years earlier.
Labor market even tighter
The labor market tightened even more in the fourth quarter. The number of vacancies rose by 16.000 and was never this high. The number of unemployed fell by 29.000. 44.000 new jobs were added, reports the Central Bureau of Statistics. Against the 387.000 vacancies there were 370.000 unemployed, which amounts to 105 vacancies per 100 unemployed. In the third quarter of 2021, there were still 93 per 100.
The corona pandemic still worries entrepreneurs about their business operations. Inflation is also a concern for businesses and consumers. Peter Hein van Mulligen: "Economically, it all seems to be in good shape with a growth of almost 5%; an increasing tightness on the labor market, which makes it easier for people to find a job. But there is still a problem. a certain gray cloud over the Dutch economy that ensures that those worries about the recovery are still not completely gone."
Linda van Eekeres
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