Where can we get wheat? That is the big question that concerns grain traders. The effect on the quotations can be guessed, they are once again on the rise. However, the underlying mechanism has changed from a few days ago.
While it was mainly investors and speculators who were looking for a safe haven for their money during the start of the Russian invasion on Thursday, the current price increase largely reflects the concerns of grain traders about the availability of wheat with the possible disappearance for a longer period of time. of supplies from the Black Sea region.
The wheat March contract on the Matif closed yesterday at €322,50 per tonne. Today, that rose to €346 per tonne in the first minutes of the trading day, an increase of no less than 7%. The May contract increased from €315,50 per tonne to €338,25 per tonne. Prices have also risen for the new harvest. The September contract has risen from yesterday's closing price of €290,25 per tonne to €309 per tonne in the opening minutes of the trading day. The December contract has increased from €286,50 to €303. This makes it clear that it is mainly the availability of wheat in the short term that worries traders. The current price of the March contract has fallen slightly but is still at an unprecedented high at €344,75 per tonne at the time of writing.
A similar price movement can be seen on the US CBoT, although the price increase is slightly less extreme. The CBoT closed at $928 per bushel (approximately €305 per ton) and that has risen to $975,75 (approximately €320 per ton) per bushel today as the writing of this article. That is a plus of more than 5%. The other 2022 contracts have prices up around 4% at the start of this trading day.
Corn quotation in a straight line up
The maize quotation on the Matif has been in a tight line since the Russian invasion and that does not appear to be changing today. The March contract closed at €311 per tonne and that rose to €324,75 per tonne this morning, up 4,4%. The remaining 2022 contracts are up even more at 5,7% for the June contract, 5,5% for August and 6,6% for November at the time of writing. Ukraine is a major supplier of non-GMO maize to the EU. Not many countries in the world produce non-GMO maize and due to the strict European rules, switching to GMO maize - which is more readily available - is not an alternative for the European animal feed industry, for example.
Gas is the biggest climber
Prices are also on the rise in the energy market. Brent crude is at $101,74 a barrel at the time of writing. That is 3,85% higher than the closing price. Natural gas closed yesterday on the TTF at €98,59 per MWh. That increased by 10% this morning to €109 per MWh. The potato market does not seem to care much about the latest developments in Ukraine. The EEX stands for the April contract at €19,70 at the time of writing. With a plus of 1%, that is marginally higher than yesterday's closing price.
Over the past few days, we have seen that commodity price rises have been accompanied by falling stock prices. That is different today, but there are differences between the different exchanges. The Nikkei index rose 1,2% to 26.844,72 points last day. The Nasdaq also closed higher at 13.751,40 points, a plus of 0,41%. The European stock markets are out of place in this list. The Dutch indicator lost 1,8% and is now at 716,59 points. London's FTSE is down 0,88% and Germany's DAX is down 2,54% at the time of writing.