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Analysis Grains

Wheat continues to rise, maize is slowing down

8 March 2022 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

It remains hectic on the grain market, especially the wheat trade. The wheat quote on the Matif has crossed the $400 mark several times during trading hours in recent days. Yesterday it was the first time to hold the €400 plus rate at the end of the day. And on the CBoT, the price is still on the rise.

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The March contract on the Matif closed on Monday at €422,50 per tonne. That is 7,3% higher than the closing price before the weekend. This means that the stock exchange has closed above €400 per tonne for the first time. The quotation even reached €450 per tonne during the trading day. The May contract closed at €396,50 per tonne, almost €25 higher than before the weekend. The wheat contracts for the new harvest have now all been concluded above €300 per tonne. The first contract (September) closed at €338,25 per tonne. This will gradually decrease to €314,75 per tonne for the May 2023 contract.

Corn stabilizes
Compared to wheat, grain maize fares a lot more quietly on the Matif. Yesterday the stock exchange closed (June contract) at €351,50 per tonne. That is €1,50 higher than Friday but well below the peak of Thursday March 3 when the Matif was at €379. The August contract closed marginally lower at €349,25 per tonne. The new corn crop stands at €276,25 per tonne for November and €275,50 per tonne for the March 2023 contract.

The March wheat contract on the CBoT closed last night Dutch time at $1.425,25 per bushel (approximately €482 per tonne). An increase of 5,7% compared to the previous close. The May contract closed at $1.294 per bushel (approximately €437 per tonne). The new crop in Chicago stands at $1.141,50 per bushel (approximately €386 per tonne) for September and decreases to $880,75 per bushel (approximately €298 per tonne). Corn prices also appear to be stabilizing on the CBoT. The March contract closed last night at $749,25 per bushel (approximately €271 per tonne). Before the weekend, the CBoT closed at $756,50 per bushel (approximately €274 per tonne).

The wheat market is currently mainly dominated by the news from Ukraine. For corn, however, the focus is more on weather developments in South America. Several major growing regions on the continent faced drought problems. Precipitation brought some air to the areas on Monday. This ensures that the corn prices calm down somewhat. In a 'normal' market, this news would almost certainly have caused a correction, according to several analysts. Due to the uncertain situation in the Black Sea region, things are now at a standstill.

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