'Livestock shrinkage will only be felt in 2024'

The agricultural sector is expected to shrink by about 1,5% this year, partly due to the nitrogen measures. The shrinking livestock population envisaged by the cabinet will only be felt in 2024. ING writes in a new sector outlook.

In the past two corona years, the agricultural sector still grew slightly (0,1% in 2020 and 0,5% in 2021), but a contraction is expected for this year. In the first quarter, production volume fell by almost 2%, after already falling in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to ING. "The prospects for the rest of the year are unfavourable. The cabinet is aiming for a reduction in livestock, which has put pressure on production volumes in livestock farming for some time. To this, the high energy prices as a result of the war in Ukraine have been added, which are putting pressure on margins and supply in greenhouse horticulture and livestock farming. In addition, bird flu is causing production loss in laying poultry farming." ING expects a volume decline in the agricultural sector of 1,5% this year and further contraction in the coming years. 

Number of stoppers possibly later and less than cabinet expected
"If the compensation is high enough and the voluntary nature remains, there will be a revival in the number of quitters. But possibly less and later than the cabinet expects," sector economist Henk van den Brink writes in the update. "Due to consultation procedures, the impact will only really be felt in the market halfway through 2024. Use of the LBV scheme for pig and poultry farmers is probably 100%, but that is doubtful for dairy farmers. Their future prospects seem better than that in the intensive livestock farming and, moreover, the land and tax component make the scheme less attractive."

Linda van Eekeres

Linda van Eekeres is co-writing editor-in-chief. She mainly focuses on macro-economic developments and the influence of politics on the agricultural sector.

l.vaneekeres@boerenbusiness. Nl

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