The price of natural gas has fallen again in recent days. Gas, however, is still incredibly expensive. The vicissitudes surrounding the Nord Stream are still troubling the gas market. Last week, several experts assumed that the supply via this pipeline would no longer be resumed. There are also some other signals coming out.
The gas listing on the TTF closed last Wednesday, July 13 at €180,50 per MWh. The market has started to fall over the past four trading days. At the time of writing, the TTF stands at €151,20 per MWh. That is still a solid price, but more than 15% lower compared to the peaks more than a week ago.
The fall in the gas price is partly caused by the expectations of traders and speculators that the gas supply to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 will be resumed after the maintenance. The pipeline will be out of service from July 11 to 21 for scheduled maintenance. Western sanctions make it difficult to get the necessary parts for the work, according to the Kremlin. This was expected to be used as an excuse by the Russians not to resume gas deliveries after July 21. Russian sources have told Reuters news agency it is unlikely that gas exports to Europe will not resume at all. This has not been confirmed by other players.
Gas availability may increase
According to some experts, it is not illogical that Russia will resume gas exports. Putin wants to tighten the EU's thumbscrews and he has found an effective means of doing this with gas. On the other hand, Russia also desperately needs the income from the sale of gas to keep the state budget in order.
On the world market, the demand for LNG from Asia is falling somewhat. As a result, more LNG is available for Europe. This also contributes to the declining quotation on the TTF.
The European Commission announced today that from August to March, Member States must reduce their gas consumption by at least 15% compared to average consumption in the period 2016 to 2021. The proposal, which will be discussed by the Council of Ministers on 26 July is primarily a directive based on the voluntary participation of the Member States. Should the gas crisis worsen and the EU declares 'a substantial risk of a serious gas shortage', the Commission's recommendation to save gas could become mandatory.