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Technical analysis July 26
The wheat quotation on the CBoT rose 2,9% last trading session. Last Friday, the wheat price had to drop significantly due to the agreement reached on the establishment of safe corridors for the export of grain from Ukraine. The Russian missile attack on the port of Odessa has raised doubts as to whether the warring parties will adhere to the terms. Grain exports from Ukraine are by no means guaranteed. Ukraine is continuing preparations for exports from the Black Sea and expects the first ships to sail this week.
Corn rose 2,3% on the CBoT. In the Crop Progress report, 61% of the maize area is rated as good or excellent. That was 64% a week earlier. Analysts expected that a reduction was coming. It is warm and dry in important growing regions in the US. However, the reduction is steeper than many market players expected. Harvest progress in Brazil of the second crop of maize (subsequent crop after soy) is hardly putting pressure on prices on the American stock market.
The soy quotation on the CBoT rose 1,8%. Here too, the USDA lowered the crop condition from 61% good or excellent last week to 59% this week. The warm and dry weather at the moment is unfavorable for the formation of the pods, and that costs yield.
The European Commission presented the Mars bulletin yesterday. The yields of summer crops, including corn, have been reduced. Southern Europe in particular is experiencing drought, which is causing lower expected yields. The yield of grain maize is 7,8% below the five-year average in the Mars bulletin. Due to the problems in Ukraine, the eyes of the market are more than normal on the EU.
Jurphaas Lugtenburg
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