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Technical analysis August 1
Wheat prices on the CBoT took a step back in the last trading session before the weekend, closing at $8.07,75 per bushel. That is 1,1% lower than the close a day earlier. According to traders, the falling price on the CBoT is mainly due to developments in the Black Sea. Steps appear to be being taken to actually restart exports via the Black Sea.
The Turkish Ministry of Defense reported today (Monday, August 1) that the first ship loaded with corn left Odessa. This is the first ship that falls under the grain deal that was concluded on Friday, July 22, between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN. Meanwhile, Russian missile attacks on the port city of Mykolaiv continue. Ukrainian grain trader Oleksiy Vadatursky was killed last weekend. He was co-founder and director of Nibulon, a trading company in agricultural products with its own fleet and shipyards. The continued attacks on Ukrainian port cities have led several analysts to doubt whether any shipowners dare to send their ships to the ports. The ships being discussed now are ships that have been tied up since the outbreak of the war.
Corn and soy closed the week on a positive note. Corn closed last Friday on the CBoT at $6.16,25 per bushel and soy at $16,37 per bushel. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest continues to weigh on the market. Higher temperatures are forecast in parts of the Midwest this week and rain is still barely in the forecast. The heat comes at a time in the growing season for both corn and soybeans when it will most likely cost yields. This gives a boost to prices on the American stock exchange. This is further reinforced by the weather reports in Europe, where heat and drought are also prevalent. The Mars bulletin already estimated the EU maize harvest to be 8% below the five-year average. Last week, market agency FranceAgriMer reduced the corn area classified as good or excellent to 68%. That was 75% a week earlier and 83% the week before that. In France too, drought and heat are wreaking havoc on the plots.
Jurphaas Lugtenburg
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