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Technical analysis August 4
The September wheat contract fell to $7.63,75 per bushel on the CBoT. It is the fourth day in a row that the wheat price has maintained the downward trend. The lower prices attract buyers for wheat. According to analysts, the effect of the increasing demand is largely offset by pressure from the new harvest on the market. The wheat harvest in the Northern Hemisphere is in full swing and that provides extra supply. That is normal for this time of year.
How the wheat price will develop in the coming months will depend on the export of wheat from the Black Sea region. The first ship has now left Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky complained on Wednesday that this is 'only a fraction of what Ukraine has to export'. Meanwhile, the physical market for wheat remains tight. However, those involved do take into account that the demand for wheat could be significantly lower due to the relatively high wheat prices and high inflation.
Soybean prices on the CBoT fell to $15.58 per bushel. Corn also took a step back to $5.91.50 per bushel. There are showers or rain in the forecast for parts of the major growing regions in the US. The very high temperatures predicted for the middle of these months have also weakened somewhat. The expected improvement in growing conditions put pressure on prices. On the soy market, this effect has been somewhat reinforced by a decline in the price of crude oil. An important part of the soy oil is processed into biodiesel. Now that prices are falling, soy is indirectly following the decline.
Jurphaas Lugtenburg
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