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Technical analysis August 8
The September wheat contract closed Friday at $7.76,50 per bushel. Experts see the resumption of grain exports as the main reason for this price drop. On Friday, three ships departed with a total of 58.000 tons of grain (maize) on board. On Saturday, the first foreign-flagged ship arrived in Ukraine since the Russian attack in late February. This was announced by the Ukrainian infrastructure minister on Facebook. It is a ship that sails under the flag of Barbados.
Russia announced on Friday that grain exports this season are likely to be lower than previously assumed by the Ministry of Agriculture. Due to disappointing weather conditions and problems with the supply of parts for foreign machines, the total grain harvest will most likely be lower than the 130 million tons of the earlier forecast.
Soy closed marginally lower on the CBoT Friday at $16.16,50 per bushel. Showers in parts of the Midwest improved growing conditions and increased yield potential. At the same time, the demand for American soy also increased again. USDA export figures released Friday show that 132.000 tons of soy have been exported to an unknown destination. That is most likely China.
Corn did take a step up on the CBoT, rising to $6.09 per bushel. Unlike soy, precipitation in parts of the Midwest has only a limited impact on the market. The forecast of warm and dry weather will continue to grip the market in the coming weeks. According to some experts, there is a big difference between corn and soy when it comes to moisture requirements. If soy gets a shower every now and then, the yield can go a long way. Maize needs sufficient rainfall to achieve a good yield. A scattered shower doesn't help there.
Jurphaas Lugtenburg
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