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Technical analysis August 9
Grain quotes on the CBoT were cautiously on the rise last trading session. The September wheat contract closed at $7.79,75 per bushel. Traders look to the Black Sea area. On Monday, two more ships departed from Ukraine. Market bureau IKAR raised the yield forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia from 90,5 million then to 95 million tons.
USDA customs figures show that more than 600.000 tons of wheat have been exported. That is well above trade expectations. Estimates were between 250.000 and 550.000 tons. Furthermore, players in the market are already taking positions for the Wasde report that will be presented next Friday.
India announced yesterday that it wants to remove the import duty on wheat. With this, the country wants to cope with the high prices on the domestic market. India is the second largest wheat producer and made it known six months ago that it wanted to explore the possibilities of exporting wheat in connection with the loss of supply from the Black Sea region.
Soy also eventually closed the trading day in the plus at $16.19,50 per bushel. Rain in arid parts of the Midwest initially put some pressure on prices. Exports of 132.000 tons of soybean from the US to China and total weekly exports that exceeded trade expectations eventually resulted in a small increase in prices compared to the closing price before the weekend. Corn took a small step up and closed at $6.09,50 per bushel. According to analysts, it is mainly the dry conditions in important growing areas in the US that determine the price to a significant extent at the moment. In addition, as with wheat, trade is taking positions ahead of the Wasde report.
Jurphaas Lugtenburg
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