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Analysis Oil

Diesel price does not care about the drop in crude oil

19 August 2022 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg - 9 comments

The fear of a recession is once again gaining the upper hand in the oil market. The problems with the supply of oil and fuel in the short term have therefore been pushed into the background. Iran was also in the news again.

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On Tuesday, August 16, the price of Brent crude fell to $92,70 a barrel. That is the lowest price in six months. In the days that followed, the oil market showed signs of recovery, but confidence remains fragile. The price of Brent oil continues to fluctuate around $95 a barrel.

Signs of slowing economic growth or even an impending recession have tested the confidence of traders and speculators in the oil market. Especially the developments in China - the largest oil importing country in the world - are closely followed. The Asian country released disappointing economic data this week. In addition, the interest rate hikes of the central banks, in particular those of the US, the FED, are having a depressing effect on the commodity market. The oil price cannot escape the movement in the market either.

nuclear treaty
The resumption of negotiations on the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran put pressure on the oil market. Since Trump's departure from the White House, several attempts have been made to get the Iran deal back on track. A few times a resumption seemed close, this time too. But the deal has now fallen through. An agreement could mean that Iran will regain access to western countries for the approximately 2,5 million barrels per day it produces.

Demand for gasoline has picked up in the US and the stock of crude oil has dwindled, according to figures from the EIA. The gasoline stock is therefore 8% below the five-year average for this period and the crude oil stock, excluding strategic reserves, is 6% below the five-year average. In Europe, demand for oil and oil products remains unabated, analysts report. This is also one of the explanations for the high diesel price in the Netherlands. Although crude oil was in a slump, diesel prices rose again this week. Today (August 19) the diesel price is €151,14 per 100 liters.

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