Drought equals 2018 and in Belgium even 1976

Many parts of the Netherlands turn deep red on the KNMI map. In large parts of Zeeland, Limburg, the Achterhoek and Twente, the precipitation deficit has already risen to far above 300 millimeters. What is striking is that the north - roughly the line above Meppel - has a deficit that is only half that value. This difference is also noticeable in crop growth.

Precipitation very scattered
The cumulative for the month of August in the extreme north of Groningen is about 40 to 50 mm. The Frisian coast also received a regional shower. In North Holland, between 30 and more than 50 mm fell this month. In other areas, the counter usually doesn't go beyond 10 to 20 mm this month.

Drought in Belgium more acute than 1976
In Belgium, the lack of precipitation is even more acute. Weather service KMI even expects that the deficit will increase so much in the next fourteen days that the 1976 line will be crossed. At the moment, the west, middle and east are classified as 'extremely dry'. RMI calculates that the first week of September will be extremely dry everywhere. In the Netherlands, the line of '76 is still a long way off and it will no longer be achieved this season. Qua hours of sunshine that's different. On August 27, the same amount of solar radiation had been achieved as in the entire summer of 1976. The average radiation was then 229 watts per m². That is now an average of 238 watts per m².

From September 3, the weather models expect a turnaround in the current weather type. First, the mercury will rise to about 27 to 28 degrees at the end of this week and in the weekend. This increases the chance of precipitation. This concerns small amounts of 2 to 4 mm per day. We also see this change in the countries around us.

Drought and heat persist
This weather type with warmer than average and slightly changeable weather is expected to last until at least mid-September. This is due to a hefty high pressure area over Scandinavia. That ensures many hours of sunshine and temperatures between 20 and 25 degrees. Normally, high pressure areas weaken in Europe after mid-September. There are no convincing signals for this yet, meteorologists say. It does not suddenly become much wetter, but also not much warmer. Still, according to current expectations, it will remain warmer than average until the second half of September.

What does this mean for autumn crops? We can already partially fill that in. The onion and potato crops for the main crop are coming to an end very quickly. This is also visible in the most recent trial harvesting figures. The yield figures this summer were always relatively good compared to previous years, but the potato crops were very outdated. With the current weather they now give up the ghost and the regrowth is minimal. This also applies to most onion plots. The aforementioned line near Meppel is especially important. There is clearly still some (regional) potential in the north. The situation is very different in the southern arable areas, Belgium, France and Germany.

Dent in forage production
The situation is not much better for livestock farmers. There is also the chopping of the silage corn started very early again. Especially under the large rivers, the maize on sandy soil has taken a major hit and the choppers are driving around in full swing. Grass growth has been stalling for months and many plots are completely brown. That puts a dent in the fodder production that started so well this spring. Not so crazy so do that too roughage market is in motion.