European gas price falls, peace does not return

The gas quotation on the TTF peaked on Friday 26 August at €339,20 per MWh. That's an absolute record. This week the gas price has already fallen by a quarter, at the time of writing the TTF stands at €254 per MWh. That is still €50 higher than at the beginning of August and even more than €150 higher than in April, May and June.

The big news on the gas market is Russia's cessation of supplies to the EU via the Nord Stream. State gas company Gazprom says the shutdown is necessary for plant maintenance. The work will take three days, after which the pipeline can be put back into use. In recent weeks, only 20% of the available capacity was used. According to the EU, there are no technical problems at all, but Moscow is using this as an excuse to use gas as a political leverage and as a counter-reaction to the West's sanctions against Russia. The results of Gazprom do not disappoint. Alexey Miller said today that the results in the first half of 2022 surpass those of last year.

Full stocks offer no guarantees
The gas storage facilities in the EU are about 80% full. In this way, the Member States are ahead of the Commission's plan, which had the target of having the margins filled by 80% by November. The danger of a gas shortage has not yet been averted. According to Aurora Energy Research, the EU can go a maximum of 3 months with fully filled storage. Saving energy therefore remains the motto. Model calculations from ICIS show that even in a scenario of an average winter and some supply of gas from Russia, the storages could be empty by March, according to Reuters. High gas prices are saving on gas, but this is mainly aimed at the short term. Factories have shut down production due to high energy prices. The fertilizer industry is perhaps the most extreme example of this. For the long term, ceasing production is not an option and other ways of sustaining production in the energy-intensive sectors must be sought.