News Fertilizer
Fertilizer shortage is lurking due to greening
Every disadvantage has its advantage, as a famous footballer once said. This also applies to the processing of crude oil and natural gas. The sulfuric acid that is extracted serves as the basis for many types of fertilizer. British researchers from University College London (UCL) fear that a switch to greener fuels will cause shortages in the fertilizer market.
A team of researchers from UCL has published the findings in the UK's The Geographic Journal. They expect that the demand for sulfuric fertilizers will almost double in the next twenty years. At the same time, production is falling because less crude oil and natural gas is processed. This creates a shortage in the market, which – according to the researchers – could result in a bidding war. The result is higher prices and shortages in places where fertilizer is desperately needed.
Shortage from 100 to 320 million tons
The study shows how the worldwide demand for sulfuric acid will grow from 246 to 400 million tons in 2040. With the expected production in the next twenty years, the researchers think that this will lead to an annual shortage of 100 to 320 million tons. That is 40 to 130% of current production. The scientists have worked out three different scenarios in their study. They assumed an annual demand increase of between 1,5 and 2,4%, based on historical data.
Worldwide, 80% of sulfuric acid comes from the petrochemical industry. It is a waste material that is released during the processing of crude oil and natural gas. Sulfuric acid is mainly used in the fertilizer industry, in the production of phosphate-containing fertilizers, but also in the extraction of cobalt and nickel. As the demand for fossil fuels declines over the next two decades, the production of sulfuric acid will also decline.
Extracting sulfur from the soil
The research team identifies two solutions: More mining of sulfur or reducing dependence on this type of fertilizer. Given the major adverse effects on the environment with the first solution, only the second is an option. "Sulphuric acid has traditionally been cheap and widely available everywhere", says lead researcher Mark Maslin. "We expect that the supply of sulfur as waste will decrease. As a result, more sulfur has to be extracted by mining it. Therefore, more research needs to be done on extracting large amounts of sulfur that are now in the earth's soil."
Maslin also advises that countries should regulate the mining of sulfur if there is indeed a large-scale switchover in this industry. "Our concern is that a decline in availability will spark a bidding war for the sulfur extracted from mines during this 'transition period,'" said co-author Simon Day. "This can cause problems in food production, especially in third world countries.
Fertilizer from batteries?
Another source of sulfur, according to UCL, is the recovery of the sulfur from the recycling of lithium batteries. New batteries and accumulators should also have less capacity so that less sulfur has to be used in the production process. The researchers call on governments worldwide to take the subject seriously and to look for alternatives in good time to maintain its availability.
Niels van der Boom
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