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Analysis Gas

It's finally going well on the gas market

12 October 2022 - Matthijs Bremer

Since August, the gas price has fallen sharply. Since this week, this decline seems to be leveling out. After a drop of around twenty euros, the gas price ended up in more stable waters this week. But analysts say it's too early to breathe a sigh of relief. The price of gas is still much higher than normal and the balance that appears to have emerged on the gas market remains fragile.

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On Thursday, October 6, the TTF was at its highest point of €175,71. After this high came the only moment of volatility of the week. In one day, the price dropped to €156,21. Major movements in the gas price did not occur for the rest of the week. On Monday, the TTF opened with the lowest position of the week with €154,12 and then did not rise above €160. This puts the prices at the lowest point in more than three months.

Apparently the gas market has entered calmer waters. At the moment everything seems to be heading in the right direction for a low gas price. The weather remains mild, so that hardly any heating needs to be done. Moreover, it seems that the still fledgling European energy policy is beginning to bear fruit. Because so far, the European Union and its member states have been successful in absorbing the loss of Russian gas.

Norway in particular helps with this. The Scandinavian country has now overtaken Russia as the largest gas supplier to the European Union. In the field of LNG, too, there are currently only windfalls to report. Countries such as the Netherlands and Germany have built a new infrastructure for importing liquefied gas in record time. Talks about delivery deals with countries such as America, Canada and Saudi Arabia are now at an advanced stage and prices remain relatively favourable.

As a result of all these developments, European gas reserves are well stocked. An average filling level of 92,1% has now been achieved in the European Union. With 93%, the Netherlands is still slightly ahead of the European average and Germany is doing even better. The gas reserves of that country are now almost completely full at 95%.

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