The electricity price was quite stable last week. Between Monday and Sunday the prices on the EPEX-Spot did not differ by more than €50. The large production of green energy and a low gas price depressed the price of electricity, at least until yesterday (Monday, October 31). Due to the high gas price, the price of electricity rose faster than the rest of the week.
Last week the electricity price remained approximately within the bandwidth of €75 and €125. On Monday, October 24, the EPEX spot had the lowest quotation of the week at €77,91 per megawatt hour. After that, prices rose slightly. On Monday, October 31, the price rose above this to €144,32. This is the highest electricity price in a week and a half.
This week, favorable yields from renewable sources also dampened electricity prices. Just like in previous weeks, the sun shone often and brightly and the force of the wind continued to shine. Both solar and wind energy were therefore again amply represented in the energy mix, meaning that more than a third of all electricity was generated green.
Gas prices are rising, but are still relatively favorable
But the persistently 'low' gas price in particular pushed the price of electricity down. The low gas price makes tapping into this energy source attractive again. Last week, 55% of all electricity in the Netherlands was generated by gas-fired power stations. This is a relatively high percentage. Since the invasion of Ukraine, this percentage has often been below 50%.
The low gas price is mainly the result of the mild autumn. Due to the high temperatures, gas demand is 30% lower than normal. Industrial major users and gas-fired power stations saved approximately 20% compared to an average winter. Users connected to the regular gas network, such as households, horticulture and SMEs, consumed even less. They saved as much as 50% compared to an average October.
Gas supplies are being utilized
Despite these major cuts, the gas price appears to have found a bottom last week. Because the impression emerged that the gas crisis has been averted before this winter, the gas price has fallen since the end of August. Since this week, gas prices have been on the rise again. Analysts are now warning against too much optimism. Although the long-term expectations for this winter indicate relatively warm weather, there is no guarantee that low temperatures will not occur in Europe and Asia.
The question is also whether LNG policy is becoming a victim of its own success. Dozens of LNG ships are currently waiting at European terminals. The liquid gas is now supplied faster than it can be stored. In addition, the daily price for gas is currently too low to be able to export LNG profitably. Several suppliers for major European ports are currently waiting for a more favorable price level. If this situation does not turn around quickly, tankers may change course to Asian countries, where demand for LNG is traditionally high.
These persistent uncertainties on the gas market result in an increase in the price of electricity. On Monday, October 24, the gas price briefly dipped below €100. In one week, the price of the TTF rose to a price of around €129. This has an impact on the electricity price. On Monday, the electricity price reached its highest level since October 21.