News EU agriculture
Less, but sufficient agricultural production in the EU
European agricultural production will hardly grow anywhere in the next ten years, including cereals. The production of milk and meat will decrease, but food security will not be compromised.
Broadly speaking, this is the message the European Commission is sending out in the mid term outlook for agriculture, which was presented today, December 8. Although this all sounds quite reassuring for European citizens, there is still a task for agriculture, says European Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski. While there are many challenges to be faced, the number of family farms in agriculture is under considerable pressure and the average age of farmers is increasing. According to the European Commissioner, these developments must be a serious warning ('wake-up call').
Fewer and older farmers
He does not indicate how these negative developments can be reversed. He does mention that agriculture also faces major challenges when it comes to the environment and climate. For example, the average ammonia emission from agriculture must be reduced by 11%, for nitrate pollution the target is a reduction of 12% per hectare. In parts of the EU, emissions must even be reduced by 50 to 60%, says Wojciechowski.
Emission relocation
Whether that works at all is the question. The Agriculture Commissioner takes into account that with the emission reductions mentioned, part of the production will disappear outside the EU, while the emissions will not disappear, but will be moved outside the EU.
In the Committee's view, all these matters should not lead to food security being jeopardized. In particular, the supply of grains and dairy remains in good order. Meat are another story. In addition, more will be imported.
A little less grain, more for people
In concrete terms, the Commission expects a slight decrease in the area under cereals to 57,2 million hectares. Less barley and maize are grown there, but wheat and other crops. Of the grains produced, 3,9% more goes to food for humans, while 6,1% less goes to animal feed. The production of oilseeds increased by 2,8 million tons to 33 million tons, mainly due to higher yields per hectare. The EU will import less. Own cultivation of legumes and soybeans increased by 54,7 and 33,3%.
EU milk production is declining slightly, by an expected 0,2% per year. In addition, a larger share of the milk will come from more extensive production systems, it is expected. Dairy consumption will remain fairly stable, but there will be shifts. For example, the consumption of cheese will increase slightly, while less milk powder will be produced and exported.
Less red meat, but even more chicken
Both meat production and meat consumption will decrease. Beef in particular takes the brunt of the blow, in favor of chicken. This is seen as a healthier and also easier to prepare product. Cattle herds in the EU are expected to fall by 9,1%, while beef prices are also set to fall. Pork production is expected to decrease by 1% per year.
Remaining small share of meat substitutes
Plant-based proteins are becoming increasingly important for European consumers, but the Commission does not foresee a major switch among consumers to meat and dairy substitutes. Ten years from now they will still represent a very small part of the market, or so it is assumed.
Klaas van der Horst
© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.
