News Meat & Protein
'Temporary stagnation of sales of meat substitutes'
After years of great growth, the sale of meat and dairy substitutes in the supermarket has stagnated this year. According to sector economists at ABN Amro, that does not mean that the stretch is now over. The bank sees plenty of opportunities for these products in the coming years and believes that by 2030 the sale of meat substitutes can double. The market for dairy substitutes can grow even further, because plant-based substitutes for cheese and yoghurt are still in their infancy.
There are ifs and buts with this expectation. "Really groundbreaking innovations require substantial investments in production locations and techniques that are still in full development," write sector specialists from the bank Nadia Menkveld and Rob Morren in the report published today (December 16). Opportunities for meat and dairy substitutes - Towards a more plant-based diet. "In addition, there are various factors that can have an inhibiting effect, for example that the sustainability and health of plant-based alternatives are increasingly under scrutiny. Consumers can also choose more often to put together vegetarian dishes with, for example, legumes."
Sales in the first three quarters of 2022 down 3%
The market for meat substitutes has grown rapidly in recent years. According to figures from research agency IRI, sales increased by 2019% in 25 and by 2020% in 34, with private brands in particular benefiting. In 2021, growth will level off to 7%. In the first three quarters of 2022, sales of meat substitutes were approximately 3% lower than in 2021. The sales growth of dairy substitutes also stagnated in 2022 after several years of significant growth.
An important cause of the decline, according to the report, is that consumers bought less food in the supermarket because they went to restaurants more often. In addition, high inflation and lower consumer purchasing power also play a role. According to sector specialists, vegetable products are seen as expensive, while in some cases this is no longer the case. Another reason cited in the report is that there is little media attention for meat substitutes and therefore few people want to try them for the first time. Furthermore, consumer research by ABN Amro shows that consumers who buy few meat substitutes do not find the taste or structure to be as expected. The last possible cause of the stagnation is negative reports about the high salt content of meat substitutes and sustainability aspects in the production, extraction of raw materials and residual flow use of meat and/or dairy substitutes.
Five opportunities for producers
What opportunities do the sector economists see for plant-based alternatives to meat and dairy? Firstly, the government aims to reduce the share of animal proteins in the diet of Dutch consumers from 60% to 50% in 2030, and supermarkets are increasing the share of vegetable proteins. In addition, more and more consumers indicate that they would like to eat less meat. But one flexatarian is not the other, according to the report. "By knowing and defining the target groups, manufacturers can better position their product."
Product innovations are mentioned as a third opportunity. Consumer research by the bank shows that 60% of the Dutch never or almost never eat meat substitutes, often because they do not like them. People who do buy them don't necessarily like them either, but buy them mainly for idealistic motives. "In order to appeal to a larger group of consumers and also to stimulate repeat purchases, innovation in taste and texture is important. But convenience, health, price and sustainability should certainly not be missing when it comes to the development of future products," says the report. Opportunity four is the expansion to out-of-home. This is because a relatively large amount of meat is consumed in the hospitality industry, especially fast food chains.
Germany's largest vegetable market
The last chance the sector specialists mention is international growth. "Product innovation requires substantial investments and by scaling up and tapping into new markets, development costs per product can be reduced, for example." They refer to a ProVeg study from last year showing that Germany is the largest plant-based market in Europe, with sales of €357 million in meat substitutes and €635 million in dairy substitutes. The second market is the United Kingdom with a total of €750 million, followed by Spain with €448 million and Italy with €425 million. The Netherlands does not appear in this list, but per capita the most meat substitutes are eaten here.
Linda van Eekeres
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