Background Nitrogen mood
Nitrogen reset seems logical, but requires reflection
Christmas is a good time for reflection and perspective. Also when it comes to the nitrogen discussion. This remains difficult on social media, because those channels often have an algorithm that aims for something else. The renowned scientific journal Nature made a good effort this week. A group of American, British and Chinese scientists came up with new evidence that the pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases is caused to a much greater extent by combustion engines than previously assumed and much less by agriculture. Time to think about the consequences.
The scientists call their findings likely. Not because they have serious doubts, but because scientists are not lawyers or activists and therefore express themselves differently. Scientists search, lawyers and activists argue.
To the model makers and politicians
The new insights have yet to penetrate the model makers and politicians, although people in those circles will have taken note of the news. The insights come down to the fact that nitrogen emissions from agriculture and related (v-NH3) account for more than 90% of all greenhouse gas emissions. The international research group has found evidence that this picture is incorrect and that emissions from combustion processes (c-NH3) account for a much larger share of emissions than the previously assumed 5% to 10%. For Europe, this is about 44%, while agriculture supplies the other 56%. The researchers base their results on research into specific isotopes, with which they can determine the emission source very precisely. That had not been done before.
New insights versus millimeter policy
Anyone who takes in this information and then looks at the many zeros after the decimal point that Aerius uses to calculate alleged emissions and to attribute effects on nature, can hardly help but experience a great sense of surprise. It also seems to be exactly the point that the Nitrogen Claim Foundation wants to make with her demand to Minister Van der Wal to stop Aerius. Van der Wal says to take the latter on board, but the case can still disturb her peace around Christmas.
Some leniency with the policymakers can perhaps be explained, because the step from the old to the new picture is big and the mills in politics turn slowly, but if the insights into climate make mega steps, millimeter policy based on outdated data looks ludicrous. It does require the will to put on a different pair of glasses.
Prefer less animals
That will take time. For many politicians and civil servants, as well as researchers, reducing agricultural emissions is part of a broader effort to also reduce the number of animals in agriculture. This theme very often recurs in the background in policy documents and also in consultation reports published in response to disclosure requests. For example, the European Commission insists on fewer animals when it comes to a Dutch derogation request and orphan former minister of agriculture Carola Schouten an update of the excretion rates for cattle because this could lead to more animals (but not more emissions). NGOs and action groups also know what to do with the current situation.
It will also be a bit of a switch for the many agencies that make Aerius calculations for all kinds of projects and, if desired, can also provide purchase or lease rights for nitrogen emissions. Aerius is a nuisance for many farmers, but a great business for many advisors. A (temporarily) no longer working system does not cause the chimney to smoke (although this is of course a wrong metaphor).
Table conversations and seating arrangement
The Nature story and the upcoming summary proceedings against Aerius were not the only nitrogen news this week. The conversations at the agricultural tables also continued as usual. On Wednesday there was a consultation at the 'side tables' (officially the wide agricultural table), Thursday there was another main table. There will reportedly be talks with chain parties again next week. Minister Adema says that there does not necessarily have to be an agreement before the Provincial Council elections, but he does let his moderator Wouter de Jong speed things up.
Despite hesitations and unease, many parties from the agricultural sector join the party. After all, what is the structure of the consultation and what is included in the report? And won't the minister soon say: 'After proper consultation with all parties…'? The agricultural parties are not alone, however. The nature organisations, landscapes and retail are also there. Moreover, the agricultural unions are not at the main table. This is for LTO (Sjaak van der Tak), the NAJK (Roy Meijer) and Agractie (Bart Kemp).
Kneeling Breathe
Politically, this week just before Christmas must not have been fun for Adema either. On Tuesday he had to fill in for colleague Van der Wal, who was on an Environmental Council in Brussels. Adema spoke out about the nitrogen purchase by Schiphol, but had to make his statements almost immediately afterwards take back. It may have been an 'honest mistake', but it is broadly explained as Adema bowing to Van der Wal and Harbers.
Also not nice for the musings during Christmas.
Yet a few days without politics and administration can help to see everything in a broader context. Not that this makes everything more understandable. For the coalition parties ChristenUnie, CDA and also VVD, the picture in terms of nitrogen does not seem very coherent. There is great dissatisfaction among rural supporters, but apparently even greater interests prevent anything being done about it. The splits inspired the Gelderse ChristenUnie to make a cynical film about the nitrogen millionaires. D66 may have an easier time with Christmas in that respect. That party can look back on an undiminished clear commitment with regard to nitrogen.
Klaas van der Horst
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