At first glance, agricultural exports in 2022 seem to have grown considerably, but these figures deserve a nuance. The sold volume shows a trend break and does not increase any further. The sharply higher export value is mainly due to the rapidly rising prices of agricultural raw materials. An inflation effect.
Agricultural exports rose by 17% to €122,3 billion last year, setting another record. More than half of these were of Dutch origin. Barely 70% was sold within the EU, the rest went to the world market. The largest increase in value is visible in the dairy and eggs category, which rose by no less than 34,5% to €11,9 billion.
The increase will be accelerated by the sharp price increases of agricultural raw materials in 2022, partly due to the war in Ukraine. The prices of dairy, meat and grain rose sharply as a result. Most agricultural goods had a higher export price in 2022 than the year before, partly fueled by higher prices for energy, fertilizer, animal feed and packaging material.
Trend break in volume
In terms of volume, it is more difficult to form an image. The exported volumes are shown in a limited way, because according to Statistics Netherlands these are sometimes difficult to add up due to the differences in units. In terms of volume, however, exports show a trend break of -0,5% after years of growth, says Cor Pierik, an agricultural economist at CBS. The decrease is particularly visible in eggs, poultry and beef and milk. Arable crops such as potatoes and grain also show a considerable decrease in volume. On the other hand, there is a volume increase in seed and potato products.
Pierik describes the limited decline as stagnation. "We can say that the growth has stopped. In 2023 we will see whether this decrease is actually a trend." Based on the declining agricultural production in the Netherlands, this is logical to expect, according to the agricultural economist.
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