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Analysis Electricity

Will French power stations restore calm to the electricity market?

7 March 2023 - Jurphaas Lugtenburg

The electricity price was remarkably stable last week. The price, however, remains at a relatively high level. The cautious restart of the French nuclear power plants could change that in the coming months. There is also criticism of the plans of the Dutch Ministry of Finance with regard to the grid operator TenneT.

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The electricity price moved mainly sideways last week. There was only a gap of €20 per MWh between the highest and lowest points in recent days. As is more or less usual, the Epex Spot Day recorded the lowest price of the week on Sunday at €122,45 per MWh. Yesterday (Monday March 6) the price rose to €141,25 per MWh. Today, however, it has already dropped to €123,17 per MWh. The days are getting longer again and we have had quite a bit of wind. As a result, the peaks in the market are leveled off somewhat. On the other hand, gas remains relatively well priced, meaning that the price on the Epex Spot Day Ahead does not really have a chance to drop.

Nuclear energy is and remains a much-discussed topic on the European electricity market. The Belgian Federal Agency for Nuclear Control (FANC) has advised the Belgian government against keeping the country's three oldest nuclear power stations open for longer. Belgium originally planned to close all nuclear power plants by 2025. Due to the war in Ukraine and the resulting problems with the supply of sufficient Russian gas, the government wants to keep a number of nuclear reactors open longer. Otherwise, the country could run into problems with security of supply in the coming years. Instead of keeping the old reactors open longer, Fanc proposes to revise the plans to keep the two newer reactors open. In the advice, the agency advocates spreading the plans for updating the safety systems for the reactors over a longer period in order to prevent acute electricity shortages in the next two winters.

In France, nuclear power stations will be put back into operation after (partly) unplanned maintenance work in 2022. France had the lowest production of nuclear energy last year due to, among other things, problems with corrosion in a number of reactors. Analysts expect France to become a net exporter of electricity again this year. Last year, France was a net importer of electricity for the first time since 1980. Unfortunately, this coincided with the war in Ukraine that turned the European energy market upside down.

However, it is certainly not certain that the European electricity market will return to a more normal situation due to the increased supply of French nuclear energy. Relatively little snow has fallen in the Alps this winter. Several analysts warn that the reservoirs of the hydroelectric power stations are insufficiently filled. Another potential danger is that the rivers will not supply enough cooling water next summer to cool the coal, gas and nuclear power stations. Last summer, power stations also had to shut down.

Dependent
Meanwhile, German Chancellor Scholz is on track to make his next big energy hit. After the German government first pulled out its pockets to support the German energy giant Uniper (including a coal-fired power plant on the Maasvlakte) for an amount that could amount to €50 billion and concluded a major gas deal with Qatar, the talks now appear to be about the takeover of the activities of the Dutch TenneT in Germany is gaining momentum. According to Reuters, the Germans are willing to pay €20 billion to take over TenneT's German network. The takeover was discussed because TenneT's sole shareholder (the Dutch state) prefers that the company mainly invest in Dutch infrastructure. That is a quite controversial decision, by the way. After the takeovers of Essent (RWE Germany), Nuon (Vattenfall Sweden) and Eneco (Mitsubishi Japan), TenneT is one of the last major Dutch utilities that is actually still in Dutch hands. Critics argue that by divesting TenneT's foreign activities and downsizing the company, the Netherlands is making itself very dependent on foreign parties for electricity supply.

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