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Analysis Energy

Easter and wind push the electricity market into a slump

11 April 2023 - Matthijs Bremer

The electricity price was relatively high at the beginning of last week. Because the wind was not blowing too hard, the production of wind turbines was relatively low. This changed around Easter weekend due to a turn in the weather, with (certainly in the beginning) more sun and later also more wind. Moreover, the upward pressure due to the higher gas price seems to be over. 

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The electricity market took a big step downwards at the beginning of this week. On Tuesday, April 4, the EPEX recorded €132,43 per megawatt hour. On Wednesday, April 5, the electricity price reached €140, the highest price in more than a month. After that, the electricity price fell sharply. On Monday April 10, electricity traded for €49,26. On Tuesday, April 11, the price of the Apex rose slightly to €58,72.

The production of green energy again appeared to determine the electricity price this week. The higher electricity price goes hand in hand with lower production of renewable energy. Until Sunday, wind energy production lagged behind, because the warm and dry weather was accompanied by low wind power. However, the lower power of wind turbines was somewhat corrected by the large production of solar energy.

From Monday, the wind force increased sharply due to the autumnal weather. With the increased production of wind energy, the electricity price fell. Moreover, the lower price around Easter is largely the result of lower demand from the business community. Electricity demand often drops on weekends because offices and factories remain closed. During the Easter weekend the drop in demand is relatively strong, because employees who otherwise work during the weekend are also free. Demand recovered on Tuesday. As a result, the trading price of electricity increased, while renewable energy production increased.

Raw material prices remain low
In the meantime, the gas price has fallen back to below €45. On Monday April 3, the gas price had risen to €51,37. For a while it seemed as if a higher gas price would set a new floor under the electricity price, but gas is now trading at €43,75 again. Although the share of gas-fired power stations is now much lower than the previous 50%, the gas price remains one of the most dominant factors for the electricity price. About a third of all electricity has been generated by gas-fired power stations in recent weeks.

In the meantime, the price of coal has risen slightly. At the end of March, the coal price was around €165 per tonne. Due to more demand from China in particular, the price has risen to just under €200. However, the price of coal is still much lower than in winter. At the end of January, the coal price was still around €350 per tonne. The increase has a slightly upward effect on prices. Coal power currently provides around 12% of the electricity supply.

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