After the turbulent month of June, calm seems to be dominating the gas market at the moment. After all, it seems that the European Union will amply meet its filling targets. Only an upcoming heat wave will cause upward pressure on prices. In addition, Statistics Netherlands notes that Dutch gas consumption in 2022 will fall to the lowest level since 1990.
After a tumultuous month of June, the gas price remains relatively stable in the first week of July. On Wednesday, June 28, the TTF quoted €34,32 per megawatt hour. On Friday, June 30, the gas price reached the highest level of the week. At that time the TTF was trading at €37,10. On Monday, July 3, the gas price had fallen to the lowest point of the week. That day the price for a megawatt hour of gas was €33,93.
According to analysts, the high filling rate of European gas reserves ensures calm on the market. Europe survived the winter well. At the end of the heating season, the gas reserves were 56% full. The European filling target of 90% now appears to have been more than half achieved. According to the latest interim score, the reserves are 77% full. What also helps is that the European Union's gas policy received support from a recent survey by research agency Rystad. The research shows that experts expect the European Union to succeed in filling its gas reserves by 1% well before the November 90 deadline. The researchers do not even rule out that a 100% filling is feasible.
The fact that the price does not fall further is the result of persistently warm weather in Europe. It is quite hot at the moment, especially in the south of Europe. According to the latest weather forecasts, temperatures will increase again in July. A Bloomberg survey among meteorologists shows that temperatures in the United Kingdom, France and Germany are above average in July. The market expects that gas demand will remain high because a lot of electricity will continue to be needed to run the air conditioners in the coming month.
Record low in gas consumption
In addition, figures published today by Statistics Netherlands show that Dutch energy consumption will have fallen to the lowest level in 2022 in 1990. Overall energy consumption fell by as much as 2021% to 10 petajoules compared to 2732. This figure includes all energy consumed in the Netherlands. This includes electricity, gas, fuel, but also coal that is used industrially. Due to the high gas price, gas consumption in particular declined. In total, natural gas consumption fell by as much as 21% from 1256 petajule to 995 petajule. As a result, the share of gas in the Dutch energy mix also decreased considerably. Between 1990 and 2022, 45% of all energy consumed in the Netherlands came from gas. By 2022, that percentage had fallen to 36%, the lowest percentage since 1990.
In absolute figures, consumption among households fell the most, by 67 petajule, or 22%. The energy sector's natural gas consumption fell almost as sharply, by 61 petajule. Of these, power stations saved just under half of the gas with 35 petajules. The oil sector is also doing its part. In total, gas consumption among oil refineries fell by 24 petajules. Relatively the most natural gas was saved in agriculture. In the agricultural sector, natural gas consumption fell by as much as 31%. This seems like quite an achievement, but in practice the lower consumption mainly points to the shrinking of the sector. The lower consumption is the result of large-scale shutdown of greenhouses.