The electricity price turned out to be very stable this week and was generally higher than previous weeks. Due to a low number of hours with a negative electricity price, the daily rates were hardly pressed. In addition, the outlook for the rest of July seems relatively favourable.
The steam price turned out to be quite stable this week. In general, the price on the EPEX fluctuated between €80 and €100. The most extreme quotes followed in quick succession. On Wednesday, July 5, the electricity price was €71,20. The EPEX reached its highest quotation the next day. On Thursday, July 6, electricity traded for €102,96.
The relatively high rates arose despite the favorable returns from renewable sources. Due to increasing capacity from solar and wind energy, the market seems to be getting used to significant downward peaks. This week, however, that appears not to be the case. Due to a number of stormy days, the solar power output was somewhat lower this week than last week. However, the electricity price did not make any major upward movements. In contrast to the lower solar power, wind energy increased sharply on stormy days.
The total power from wind and solar power was even higher due to the extra wind energy. In total, no less than 60% of all electricity was generated by solar collectors and wind turbines. Remarkably, efficient generation actually results in relatively high electricity prices. Because the power was very stable this week, negative electricity prices did not occur. As a result, the number of hours with a negative electricity price remained limited this week, causing the final daily prices to be higher.
Lower gas price
Meanwhile, cheaper gas ensures a lower basic price of electricity. The gas price appears to have passed its peak on June 15 for the time being. At that time, the TTF recorded a reading of €41,15. The gas price is now approximately 25% lower again, with a quotation of around €30. This is mainly the result of progress in Norwegian maintenance. According to the Norwegian grid operator Gassco, several maintenance projects are entering their final phase.
In recent weeks, approximately 150 million cubic meters less Norwegian gas has flowed into the European market due to planned and unplanned maintenance. Last week, gas supplies from Norway increased by 30 cubic meters. Imports are expected to increase again this week by a similar volume. Analysts expect the gas market to be a lot less volatile, which will also make the electricity price a lot more stable. At least until August 1, when the next maintenance round starts.
Sunny weather
In addition, the weather forecasts are also favorable at the moment. The expectation for July is that it will remain 1 to 3 degrees higher than average. Although the power demand from air conditioners is increasing, the estimated 20% power from solar energy more than compensates for the additional electricity demand. This puts pressure on the demand for gas in particular, which means that electricity remains relatively affordable.