Background Nitrogen mood
Collective and mutual trauma after Rutte IV
The week after the fall of the Rutte IV cabinet is special for the Netherlands in every respect. Rarely, if not ever, have so many ministers and politicians announced their departure after the fall of a cabinet as this time. The prime minister plus all deputy prime ministers, as well as three of the four political leaders of the governing parties, have given up, while more politicians may follow. The exodus surpasses that in agriculture, just to name a side street.
Each of them will (partly) have their own reasons, but a superficial observer will in any case conclude that there is something wrong with this. And to say that the hardened climate is to blame is too easy. Hardening is not good, but also those who complain about this often have butter on their heads, if not with words, then with behavior. What can now be seen looks like a collective trauma, which many parties in society (and not just the farmers) also feel. This is evidenced by the enormous number of complaints about government policy.
Recovery becomes a big issue
The search for recovery promises to be a major issue in the new election campaign, which will kick off after the summer, with many new faces trying to sell their plans and good intentions to voters. This campaign may create new opportunities for parties not affected by government policy.
It had to go wrong at LNV
The major pain point in agriculture is and remains the nitrogen policy and everything related to it. Former top civil servant Tjibbe Joustra analyzed this week a TV interview accurately what has gone wrong in terms of policy on the part of the government. A Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality in which two ministers hold each other in a headlock, that was bound to go wrong. The approach with a minister for every problem has also not helped. Joustra wisely did not comment on the content.
At first glance, after the talks on an agricultural agreement had been broken, Piet Adema finally seemed to have his hands free to put something concrete down. But then came the fall of the cabinet and he was again unable to create anything tangible. Christianne van der Wal was the same way. It had to guarantee that the agreed nitrogen policy would continue, but that effort was also blocked.
How far did the exchange go?
Although most in agriculture did not agree with where Adema wanted to go, many farmers had the impression that he, more than his predecessor, wanted to help them as much as possible. The question remains whether he had that space. Evil tongues claim that the ChristenUnie may have already exchanged the nitrogen file in advance with the formation. Who all knew about that is point two. More things were exchanged in the coalition agreement, but the implementation of those agreements was difficult.
It is now a matter of waiting for a decision from the House of Representatives, which files may still be handled and which will be declared controversial. It is expected to be voted on in September. Organizations such as Greenpeace are putting pressure – because of the urgency – to continue with the nitrogen policy, but this seems difficult. It's too controversial. Still, it is not entirely without chance, because outgoing Prime Minister Rutte also stated that he is still looking for opportunities.
Solution-oriented policy
Whether there will be a completely different policy after the elections in November remains to be seen. Much depends on which coalitions can be forged, and on whether parties are prepared to look at the existing problems with a fresh, solution-oriented view. It is almost inconceivable that the policy that has now been introduced will continue unabated, but it will probably not be possible to abandon the table completely.
In the meantime, the provinces have also been made tasty with the tens of billions that Minister Van der Wal waved. Its budget of €45 billion for the countryside has already been oversubscribed several times with wish lists from the various provinces. However, a new government will also have to make cutbacks, given the sharply changed economic situation.
Apocalyptic sounds
On the other hand, there will be pressure from Brussels to continue on the path taken under Rutte IV. Moreover, European Commissioner Frans Timmermans wants to go much further. He also wants to greatly improve the health of Europe's soils and go full steam ahead with his nature restoration plans. To get things moving, Timmermans and his ally Virginius Sinkevicius sometimes paint the current situation. in almost apocalyptic terms off. For example, between 60% and 70% of all soils in Europe are said to be unhealthy and 83% of soils are polluted with residues from plant protection products. They say this is scientifically proven.
Add a grain of salt
Inquiry shows that it should be taken with a grain of salt. The 60% to 70% unhealthy soils comes from an anthology of the Mission Board for Soil Health and Food, which may advise the European Commission and is chaired by former minister Cees Veerman. The 83% contamination with pesticide residue is a rough simplification and refers to the estimated presence of one or more types of residue (not quantified) in soils. This report also quotes the wild claim that less than 0,1% of plant protection products reach their target. This comes from a French study from 1986. That level.
Policy Science
Fortunately, the quality of science in the Netherlands is better, although nitrogen professor and cabinet adviser Jan Willem Erisman still has to explain why nitrogen emissions on Schiermonnikoog are increasing while the cows are gone. He had envisioned it very differently. It could just be that with a new cabinet, the policy-scientific insights under the entire nitrogen policy will be revised.
Less demand for sustainable
Many farmers mainly see a breathing space in the fall of the cabinet. The opponents of agriculture will remain, but the pressure from policy will decrease. At Lely Industries they are less happy with it, although there the hope was mainly for certainty about policy for the longer term. At Lely they had hoped to be able to sell quite a few Spheres, but the sales targets have now been adjusted downwards. Rabobank will probably also issue less sustainable loans. Farmers are waiting, also paralyzed.
Klaas van der Horst
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