Grain TA

The Russian attack on the Ukrainian transshipment facility at Reni on the Danube is fodder for the bulls in the wheat market. Russia has thus made it clear that preventing Ukraine's grain exports is a priority. That is not without effect. Some sources report that thirty ships have anchored just before the Ukrainian port on the Danube because they do not want to risk being attacked.

According to some analysts, it will be exciting which countermeasures Ukraine will come up with. An attack on the Sea of ​​Azov (a branch of the Black Sea) could hurt Russian grain exports. And that Ukraine is targeting this area was recently shown with the attack on the Crimean bridge. The European Commission also published the July edition of the Mars bulletin. According to the new forecast, winter wheat yields will be lower than expected a month earlier. The rain that has fallen in the EU since the second half of June has been insufficient to make up for the moisture shortage.

Maize also gets a tail of what is happening in the Black Sea area. But least as important are the weather reports in the US. This week it will be warm with temperatures in the cornbelt well above 30 degrees. Two-thirds of the corn is in the panicle in the US, which means that the crop is in the phase where it actually needs moisture. For next week, the American Meteorological Institute predicts a greater chance of rain, but players in the market are not reassured about that.

A Chinese order for 121.000 tons of soybeans in the US may not seem like a big deal, but it is a psychological boost for the bulls in the soybean market. A strengthening dollar that is unfavorable for American exporters and disappointing export figures are therefore somewhat pushed into the background. American soybean exports are more than 5% behind last season. In addition, soy is supported by the rally in palm oil.

Jurphaas Lugtenburg

Is editor at Boerenbusiness and focuses mainly on the arable farming sectors and the feed and energy market. Jurphaas also has an arable farm in Voorne-Putten (South Holland). Every week he presents the Market Flash Grains

j.lugtenburg @boerenbusiness. Nl

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