News Grain TA
Grain TA
Wheat was in a downward spiral in the last trading session before the weekend. It seems that the market has largely absorbed the Russian actions to halt grain exports from Ukraine. It is just going too far to say that peace has returned. African countries are a major buyer of Russian wheat. After the Russia-Africa summit, ties have been strengthened, but not all wrinkles have been ironed out yet. According to the chairman of the African Union, the wheat that Russia makes available is insufficient and Moscow and Kiev must sit down to reach a ceasefire in any case.
In the soy trade in the US, farmers who want to sell the last part of the 2022 harvest and traders and processors who are somewhat reluctant to buy, came together. This combination has a clear price-pressure effect on the market. A few large orders for soy from the new harvest from China, which made the market positive earlier in the week, therefore faded somewhat into the background. Safras & Mercado came up with a harvest forecast for next season's Brazilian soy harvest, estimating it at 171,5 million tons. That is well above the expectations of the USDA, which expects a harvest of 163 million tons.
With regard to maize, eyes are also partly focused on South America. The Buenos Aires grain exchange wrote that the corn harvest in Argentina is 68% complete. The expected yield remains the same at 34 million tons. The extended program to exchange corn dollars for pesos at a more favorable exchange rate has included 1,2 million tons of corn since Monday last week. According to analysts, more corn has been processed into ethanol in the US and the final stock would therefore be lower than expected by the USDA. Drought remains the most important factor for the new harvest. In the west of the Cornbelt, there is not enough rain to keep the corn growing well.
Jurphaas Lugtenburg
© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.