The old Murphy's Law is more and more applicable to the fertilizer market: problem after problem piles up. After a soaking wet spring and the abolition of derogation, the exit season is now hampered by - almost - extreme rainfall. The situation threatens to turn into a disaster, insiders warn almost unequivocally. Only outgoing minister of agriculture Piet Adema can still tackle the problem.
The start of the spreading season this spring was already a fiasco and things haven't gotten much better since then. Although the necessary manure could be spread in May and June, the manure caravan is now at a standstill again. The heavy rain in July meant that the country was too wet in many places. You can only drive to storage locations, but on balance this does not reduce the pressure. The rain certainly doesn't make the grain harvest go smoothly. In Zeeland and the south-west of the Netherlands, more than half has reportedly been threshed, but in the (more) northern arable areas, often only a quarter of the grain harvest has been harvested. If that percentage is already achieved. Other years the combines were often ready at the end of July.
The late grain harvest is yet another setback for the fertilizer market. After all, the upward pressure on collection contributions was already great due to the accelerated phasing out of the derogation. Now that the buffer zones can no longer be included as placement space, there is an estimated 2,5 to 3 million tons of extra cattle slurry hanging over the market.
Prices are rising
A number of fertilizer intermediaries who had ventured into fixed price agreements are currently stuck with their fingers. They expected fertilizer prices to drop towards the summer. The opposite happens, fertilizer prices continue to rise. Livestock farmers therefore see manure disposal costs increasing. The collection contributions for cattle slurry are now at or above €20 per cubic meter in all areas. Pig slurry prices are a few euros higher and appear to be on their way to €25 per cubic meter. These are not yet record high prices, but the price relief of recent years has been canceled out.
Arable farmers can make money again
This means that arable farmers can again receive money for liquid manure. Sometimes more than €10 per cubic meter purchased. Yet arable farmers are often not keen on liquid manure. The fertilizer prices do provide a little extra balance, but this makes little difference on top of the sky-high potato and onion prices. Nevertheless, intermediaries hope that they can call on arable farmers in the final phase of the spreading season. There is so much supply pressure that the situation threatens to result in a disaster, insiders warn. According to experienced professionals who have been in the business for thirty years or more, the situation has never been this dire before.
Cumela is waiting for Adema
The corridors have already opted for an extension of the spreading season to buy time. Extra usable space in particular seems called for. That is why trade organization Cumela already appealed to outgoing agricultural minister Adema in mid-July to increase the usable space for nitrogen. According to the trade association, arable farmers have often already filled in the usable space for nitrogen this spring. So far, Adema has not yet responded to the request to increase the maximum nitrogen standard of 170 kilos per hectare. But given that it is still a recess, people still hope that Adema will adopt a reasonable attitude and think along to relieve the pressure on the manure market.