Background Nitrogen mood
Nitrogen barrage with estimated accuracy
Now, after the summer holidays, the political mill has started turning again, a barrage of disturbing nitrogen news is also coming loose. Outgoing nitrogen minister Christianne van der Wal, however, first told the provinces this week, because they send too high a bill.
The outgoing cabinet had pledged tens of billions for the solution of the nitrogen problem, mainly by tackling farmers. However, the provinces still see this as small beer and came up with a wish list that costs tens of billions more. Of course Van der Wal can't do anything with that, she made it clear. Certainly not at a time when the central government has to tighten its belt again and fellow ministers are eyeing the still unused billions of their nitrogen colleague.
Brussels scarecrow
In response, the minister pulled out the European bogeyman: the provinces must make do with the available budget and hurry, otherwise the European Commission will get angry. She must have made a very good turn in Brussels with that, but not really. The Commission can be strict, but it does not like to be pulled out like a scarecrow every time a Member State has to solve a problem.
Nature even more sensitive
The same minister also sent in the past week a letter plus report to the House of Representatives, in which the urgency of the nitrogen problem was once again underlined. Nature is said to be even more sensitive to nitrogen than previously thought and nitrogen deposition (also from agriculture) is said to have increased even further. The minister bases this on a study by Wageningen ER on the one hand and an international study behind it, and on the other hand on calculations by the RIVM. The national media adopted the new alarm cries uncritically and remarkably quickly. For the uninitiated: communication plans are often behind this, according to various WOO documents.
Still, it might be wise for Minister Van der Wal to let all the information sink in before she further tightens the nitrogen standards for nature. There is something to be said about it, and not just because the provinces are concerned or the like.
Research tunnel
The special thing about the Wageningen report and the underlying international study plus the history of this is that they all come from the same research tunnel and are, as it were, based on the same 'source code'. It is very often Van Dobben, Bobbink and the like, who then also refer to each other. Remarkable at the latest report is also that the even greater vulnerability of nature is determined on the basis of new 'estimates' (literally stated) of the Critical Deposition Value (KDV). No new insights have been used or found, the old calculation system has been polished up and its validity remarkably enough refers to court decisions that confirm the correctness of the method. As if judges have suddenly become nitrogen experts, or that scientists have to test their latest insights against this. Usually there are colleagues for that, preferably external and critical.
Also in working group KDW
Incidentally, there has been pressure from the Ecological Substantiation Task Group for some time now to emphasize the vulnerability of nature more strongly, according to documents from the provinces. This kind of thing also gives counter pressure to movements from the Alternatives Working Group for the KDW, which is still active. LTO Nederland has kept itself out of this, because it sees no point in principle in a KDW-based policy and simply wants to get rid of it, but a group such as Agractie is still in it and is looking from within for a broader, less arbitrary yardstick. To this end, the club has to compete against other working group parties such as the MOB and also researchers from the B-ware agency (which in turn houses people from the aforementioned research tunnel).
If Agractie gets his way, the question is whether Minister Van der Wal can move on the point of the KDW. Nitrogen is a contentious political issue, whether declared controversial or not. Until now, Van der Wal has not moved anywhere. A fully empowered coalition can maneuver more easily. See the new Brabant coalition, which is partly pushing back the stable deadline, although that is not enough for agriculture.
LTO vs DDB
LTO may not want to know anything about a KDW-based policy, but the organization is more cooperative and understanding when it comes to a desired reduction of the livestock. Wilco Brouwer de Koning made this clear on Tuesday during a meeting of the Dutch Dairy Organization (NZO). According to him, there is no alternative, not even because there is a threat of a large manure surplus due to the end of the derogation. That immediately provoked a reaction from the DDB, who was also present, who said that he was a bit tighter in the game, and surprisingly enough (in that company) also seemed to get quite a bit of approval.
Less livestock and data, more deposition
The fact that RIVM sees an increase in nitrogen deposition, also from agriculture, is also remarkable. First, the herd has been steadily declining in recent years. Secondly, ZuivelNL has not been providing the necessary data for a number of years and RIVM is therefore no longer able to make detailed calculations. According to insiders, the calculation method itself has not changed. In any case, this requires clarification.
Yield buyout low
How things are going with the buyout of peak loaders in the meantime is difficult to follow. There seem to be quite a few livestock farmers who are initially intimidated by the label of peak loaders. Psychologically, Van der Wal scores a point in her favor. The question, however, is whether it is necessary for people to let themselves be paralyzed by this. Good advice is required and buy-out by the state is by no means always the only option. Moreover, does the buyout of so-called peak taxers help as expected? Geodata analyst Piet Steenhuizen, has made an analysis and believes that the government grossly overestimates the return on investment. Innovation is a much better remedy, but the cabinet has shown that it is afraid of the combination of agriculture and innovation and is unwilling to do so.
Finally, the BBB, which together with other (even) smaller parties, has voiced strong opposition in recent years to all kinds of nitrogen and agricultural plans of the cabinet. Although this party has a formidable competitor in the form of Pieter Omtzigt's NSC, the BoerBurgerBeweging thought it was important to present a prime ministerial candidate, if only to show that there really is quality to be found for this. She presented former CDA politician on Friday afternoon Mona Keizer (see photo) as prime ministerial candidate. Caroline van der Plas also presented two other switchers from the House of Representatives: Derk Jan Eppink, Nicki Pouw-Verweij (both ex-JA21) and Lilian Helder (ex-PVV). Cor Pierik of CBS is also on the list of candidates. He announced that he would resign from his duties as agricultural spokesman there.
And as far as other candidates are concerned: Christianne van der Wal reportedly also wants to be on the list of candidates, from the VVD.
Klaas van der Horst
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