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In practice, nitrogen emissions deviate significantly from the model

12 September 2023 - Klaas van der Horst - 18 comments

The model that RIVM uses to calculate nitrogen emissions from individual farms and their depositions on vulnerable nature does not match measurements made by a research team from the University of Amsterdam (UvA). Traceable emissions from individual companies mainly precipitate within a radius of 100 meters. In general terms, the RIVM overestimates the measured deposition by 3,6 times.

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This is one of the most striking conclusions in the report 'Nitrogen deposition around dairy farms: spatial and temporal patterns', of which an Executive summary was published today (Tuesday, September 12). "We cannot claim a good 'match', nor any other form of validation, because the observed deposition measurements differ from those in the OPS model (the RIVM calculation model, ed.)," the researchers write.

Actual measurements taken
The study is important for several reasons. It is the first study in which actual measurements were made and nitrogen isotopes were also traced to the source. The RIVM mainly uses modeled methods and has omitted measurements.

The measurements taken by the UvA researchers led by Albert Tietema indicate that nitrogen deposition outside a radius of 500 meters around a farm can hardly be traced back to that farm. The largest amount of 'proprietary' nitrogen emissions occurs within a radius of 100 meters. At a distance of 25 meters, 75% of the ammonia concentration can still be traced back to it, at a distance of 500 meters only 25%.

PAS detectors helped out
The average 'background deposition' of traceable nitrogen within 500 meters is 5,6 kilos per hectare per year. This is well below the Critical Deposition Value (KDW) for most vulnerable nature, which means, for example, that all PAS detectors were easily rescued. The permit issuance is easier if a KDW within a radius of 25 kilometers around the applicant is not exceeded. While the OPS greatly overestimates the dry deposition, the model, on the other hand, significantly underestimates the wet deposition. The UvA research team does not have very precise figures about this, because the wet deposition is derived from the difference between the total deposition and the dry deposition.

The results quoted stem from a two-year independent study by the University of Amsterdam, which was financed by the Mesdag Fund. The research was conducted on two dairy farms in the north of the country. Of the total nitrogen emissions from farms, 91% pass directly to higher air layers, as is generally the case with other emissions from industry and traffic. Then it comes down again. The remaining 9% falls within 500 meters of a farm, but mainly very close.  

Measurements and models should go hand in hand
The Amsterdam research group of the Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics would like to conduct further research, but sees the measurement results as an important addition to the model-based work of the RIVM. "The need for measurements and modeling to go hand in hand is widely endorsed." Another conclusion from the study is that grassland emits a net amount of 12 kilos of ammonia per hectare, three quarters of which in the spring and summer, when fertilization and harvesting takes place.

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Klaas van der Horst

He is a dairy market specialist at DCA Market Intelligence. He researches market news and trends and interprets developments.
Comments
18 comments
Subscriber
Zeeuw 12 September 2023
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url = https: // www.boerenbusiness.nl/artikelen/10905898/nitrostofemission-wijkt-in-de-praktijk-sterk-af-van-model]Nitrogen emissions in practice deviate significantly from the model[/url]
So the conclusion is correct: all court rulings on permit rejections below 10mol/ha/year are based on model-based malpractice. It is time for the Liethingsbroek project in Groningen to produce the results. I don't understand why RIVM scientists continue to lend themselves to such a mafia government. They still talk about correction for NH3 from Zee! That's a lie that it's in print!
Subscriber
Louis Pascal deGeer 12 September 2023
It is very telling that the Amsterdam University in particular is putting a bomb under the entire nitrogen policy of the government, which should now completely stop saying a word about it and also stop with the N history,
Thank you Amsterdammers!
Subscriber
Jurriaan 12 September 2023
It just depends on how you read the research. Elsewhere you can read that the RIVM models are completely correct and that the cabinet sees it as confirmation to continue with the current policy.......... It is a coincidence that research has just become known a few days after nitrogen policy is not controversial has been explained......
Subscriber
Louis Pascal deGeer 12 September 2023
I don't understand how this is being tolerated and for me it is proof of how far the Hague is from reality. Hope that the fat voters will speak clear language!!!
Subscriber
January 13 September 2023
not on the news
not in AD
Subscriber
time bomb 13 September 2023
jan wrote:
not on the news
not in AD
It is certainly worth mentioning. Would boerenbusiness can we achieve this very important outcome?
It would be nice if this would be on the plate of Timmermans and v/d Wal for breakfast.
Jost 13 September 2023
Lois Pascal De Geer 23;36.

The RIVM is commissioned by The Hague. Consciously took the wrong path.
Subscriber
time bomb 13 September 2023
I enjoyed hearing and reading Von der Leyen's statements. I think I can say that SHE is a politician with common sense. She thanked the farmers twice for providing the public with sufficient food. This will not go down well with Bibbermans.
I was delighted.
Subscriber
Gerben 14 September 2023
You don't count dairy farmers as rich. The research results - from only 2 companies - are expressed subjectively here. Read the AZ report yourself. Then you see that false hopes are being raised. Dairy farms/sector shit on the RIVM, but they do not even carry out measurements themselves on and outside their farms. Tragic!
Subscriber
CM 14 September 2023
Has anyone already made the link with Schiphol and all flight movements? They say that their emissions cannot be attributed to them.
Subscriber
January 14 September 2023
Gerben is a civil servant
Subscriber
Zeeuw 14 September 2023
Gerben, you are off the beaten path, we say in Zeeland. This means that there is little hope for you and you have to keep calm or you will be admitted for treatment!
Subscriber
Gerben 14 September 2023
It's unbelievable that farmers consider themselves rich. It seems that the butcher inspects his/her own meat. You can also say inbreeding.
Suppose that the small, non-representative nitrogen study on only 2 farms is true, then it would really be a disaster for livestock farms. The ammonia therefore precipitates on the livestock farm site. There will be a huge surplus = concentration = pollution of nitrogen on the farmland. This washes out or contaminates the ground and waterways through soil and rainwater. In this way, the wider area and nature reserves are still flooded with nitrogen.
The livestock farms must then be regarded as a chemical polluter, the site must be dammed and the runoff/leaking must be purified. An expensive joke for the livestock companies!
In short, the nitrogen problem remains and must be addressed: reduction of the livestock table
Subscriber
CM 15 September 2023
Gerben, are you doing well? When I read that from you, I highly doubt it. The grapes were certainly very sour after this report from Uv Amsterdam? You frame and twist but you're just rambling. It is not worth having a serious discussion about such nonsense.
Subscriber
Gerben 15 September 2023
CM and farmers, don't count yourself rich. Too much nitrogen is produced - closer or further away. Germany wants to settle the surplus (export minus import) of cross-border nitrogen.
Who is going to pay for that, the Randstad certainly again. The mood turns: the polluter must pay. The more pollution the more docks. The shore turns the ship!
Subscriber
Louis Pascal deGeer 15 September 2023
If I understand correctly, 90% of the emitted NH3 disappears quickly to the upper layer of the air, i.e. atmosphere? And WHAT is happening there? Later this NH3 is precipitated in the form of rain. Is that still the same NH3 or has Nature modified it in the high air layers and also through the rain. Suddenly a large part of the 90% precipitates through rain.
To me that is the signal that Nature is working for us!
farmer through and through 16 September 2023
Gerben, come and learn from me!
you really don't know anything about it.
and the whole of the Netherlands is full of people who shout but hear nothing and accept it, etc., etc
everything needs nitrogen that is life......
Nature is nowhere as well balanced as on and around the farm
has been a large cycle for as long as farmers have existed, no one else can say that in any industry.

what do you think of our absorption through the crops???
We can also send the invoice to the Netherlands BV there
I don't hear anyone talking about it

there is 1 very important misconception.
If you make something tight enough you will always have too much.
We have a manure policy that is completely wrong.
much and much too little, our crops need 50% more to grow optimally, but you should not be very harsh about your fertilizer quantity, as a farmer you want the best for plants and soil,
It is too sad for words that we are not allowed to decide how we fertilize/cultivate/cultivate our property, on what date, etc.
no, that is all shoved down our throats, often by guests just like you who don't know how it works in practice.
That's exactly where things are going wrong right now. Let the farmers farm themselves and everything will be more than fine. It is our livelihood, so we want and do the best we can with blood, sweat and tears. a little more respect would be in order.
ps cherish every farmer because there are far too few of his bread and butter.
first go to the airports/traffic/industry for about ten years to see what you can do there, they have done 25 in terms of improvements in the last 0,0 years, etc. etc.

Subscriber
Gerben 16 September 2023
I wish every farmer the very best. Double (milk) prices, halving of the livestock population, immediate phasing out of subsidies for companies larger than the average company size (degressive instead of proportional system).
Replacing 50% animal proteins with vegetable proteins at world level would save 653 million hectares, deforestation would be halted, emissions would be reduced by one third and water savings would be 10% less (see also today's NRC).
That's what it looks like. Manure can be compared to a medicine: beneficial, but in an overdose it is a poison.
You can no longer respond.

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