Background Nitrogen mood
Hot UvA nitrogen potato for sacred cow from De Bilt
In Amsterdam this week, a boiling hot potato rolled out of the pan, and it was actually quite entertaining to see the people talking about it. Of course it will pass the independent nitrogen deposition research of the University of Amsterdam, financed by the Mesdag Fund. In our Nitrogen Mood section we give an impression of the nitrogen crisis in our own way.
The bottom drawer of the desk has already been opened wide for the established nitrogen interests, such as the RIVM, Schiermonnikoog expert Jan Willem Erisman and the Minister of Nature and Nitrogen and her officials. Even the UvA research team was humble and apprehensive. Every research deserves its own place. No, the results of the study do not contradict Aerius' OPS model! The research confirms what we already knew and does not alter existing policy!
Everything deployed
It is known that politicians are good at acting, but where were the independent scientists now? Had they written down something they were not allowed to do or something they should not have done? There are countries where scientists end up in prison because of their work or have to look for other work. In the Netherlands, at most, your career can be damaged. The organizations and individuals who felt affected by the UvA research naturally knew for a long time what was literally and figuratively in the air. They have all been in supervisory groups surrounding the research and there have already been quite a few discussions. It is also no coincidence that Minister Van der Wal suddenly came up with a story a few weeks ago that nature is even more sensitive for nitrogen than first thought. Everything that could help limit the impact of the UvA research has been used. Even in the days just before publication.
Agreement on distribution
It is therefore not nothing. The OPS system (Aerius) may be correct on a meta level, globally speaking, and agricultural companies do not emit less nitrogen than they do. In the meantime, the distribution of emissions around companies is very different from what Aerius calculates, the UvA shows, and there is also scientific agreement about this, as noted in the research report. This has enormous consequences for policy. The fact that Minister Van der Wal's portfolio in its current form is therefore redundant is the least important.
Budget envy
It is a pity for her that during the next round of cuts, many fellow ministers will have an extra eager eye on her budget. The redevelopment plans for the countryside are being overhauled, because how do you determine nitrogen sensitivity from now on? And what consequences do you attach to this for the design of areas? Fewer companies have to leave due to distance criteria and space claims from vulnerable nature reserves must now also be viewed differently. The fact that you no longer have to talk about peak load policy is a 'no-brainer'.
Measuring in the province
No matter how strong the will to deny will be, provinces will now also measure nitrogen deposition. A start has already been made in various regions. And it will take less time than the UvA research, because there is now a methodology and working method. Another policy consequence of the UvA research is that from now on, nitrogen development space no longer has to be taken away from agriculture alone. It is even possible that already purchased nitrogen space, such as in nitrogen banks, will now become scientifically and legally worthless. The Aerius economy is turning upside down. This will take some getting used to for other (non-agricultural) economic interests in the Netherlands.
Impressed
The scientist who brought all this together is undoubtedly quite impressed. In a trade magazine, lead researcher Albert Tietema says that he therefore mainly wants to stick to science. Yet he seems to struggle with the context. For example, he seems to dispute that his research shows that the OPS model used by the RIVM overestimates nitrogen deposition by 3,6 times, while in its own summary is (page 2 at the bottom). Then, without realizing it, he seems to go to the other side: "That is a conclusion that is not based on our results. That number of 3,6 could also have been 2, or 0,2. We know Just no."
Aerius is treated as the great sacred cow of nitrogen policy. Fortunately, its designer is more down-to-earth. On his Linkedin page he writes: "No software system is completely error-free. So neither is Aerius." This consultant, who now lives in Malawi (applicable company name: Wing), ensures that the system continues to run smoothly and that the necessary updates are made periodically.
Aerius becomes uneasy
In a latest development, the RIVM announced (via the newspaper for developed Netherlands) that it wants to get rid of Aerius, because - apparently suddenly - it is no longer scientific enough and is used too much for policy implementation. Perhaps there is more to it. Scientific studies indicate that there is still an (ammonia) leak in Aerius. Nitrogen models would overlook the contribution of ammonia from combustion processes. As a result, RIVM maps would show built-in deviations.
Innovation directorate
The central government is not the only one that is not ready for a different view of the world. Many agricultural managers don't seem to be like that either. Like a new coalition, united in it Directing body accelerates innovation. The parties in this body want to remove the stickiness from the innovation process in agriculture, which is a great goal, but they seem to have forgotten the environment in which this has to take place. Given the circumstances, it should not be surprising that the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality does not help them with this, but there are more parties in the club. Because the process is still said to be confidential, participants are reluctant to express themselves about it. Apparently they cling to the idea that no rules will be changed during the match. An organization like MOB also continues as usual and files new lawsuits against emissions from companies in Gelderland. Will the judge also take the new insights into account?
Klaas van der Horst
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