Analysis Nitrogen mood
Controversy engulfs policy surrounding nitrogen
While a majority in the House of Representatives plus the cabinet want to continue with the implemented nitrogen policy - because it is not controversial - scientific doubts are increasing. The RIVM also feels increasingly uncomfortable about this.
Barely three days after the University of Amsterdam's new research results published about nitrogen emissions from farms and their deposition in the immediate vicinity, it emerged that the RIVM wants to get rid of the calculation core (Aerius) on which everything is based. Very surprising to the outside world. The news was released on Friday afternoon via the NRC.
In further explanation, the RIVM writes that it already indicated to the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality last year that it wanted to transfer the management of Aerius, because as a scientific institute it is not involved in the licensing and the choices that the government makes for this.
Been planning for some time now
A spokesperson for the RIVM says that what emerged last weekend is actually not new at all. The RIVM says it still endorses the fact that data and models are used in Aerius for policy implementation. By transferring Aerius, RIVM could once again focus on its core tasks of measuring, calculating and monitoring the nitrogen load on nature (not a word about agriculture).
Remarkably, the institute does not comment on any doubts about data produced so far, but it is striking that earlier this year there was suddenly a eight-year-old research by RIVM and TNO has been published. This has been referred to regularly in recent years, but it has not been made public. It is a study in which, to a certain extent, similar conclusions are drawn as those now drawn by the UvA, but for which measurements were already carried out in 2014 and 2015.
In the meantime, responsible nitrogen minister Christianne van der Wal appeared on TV as if nothing had changed in the insights. However, at WNL on Sunday she again distanced herself from the compulsory purchase of companies.
From UvA to KLW and Wageningen
The UvA research will create even more excitement and lead to shifts and new insights in many other areas in agriculture. What about the cycle pointer? This calculates tens of kilos of nitrogen emissions per hectare of agricultural land, while the UvA study calculates 12 kilos per hectare.
ZuivelNL passes on
If the UvA results are taken seriously, Wageningen researchers will have to carry out many recalculations. They receive the regular recycling data from ZuivelNL and interpret it further, both for their own research and for government policy. Just like the RIVM does with Aerius.
There is a chance that researchers and especially policymakers will first want to better verify all kinds of data, because it means quite a bit, but the differences between what is now measured by the UvA and the old data obtained from models are so great that adjustments have become inevitable.
Reality check stopped
For the RIVM, the matter does not seem to be over yet, because if internally they had known for a long time that there were doubts about the correctness of their own model, why was that doubt kept indoors for so long, and why is a much-needed 'reality check' necessary? of the model via measurements has been held back for so long?
Finally, returning to politics: given the controversy that flared up within a few days, it might have been wise to put the nitrogen policy 'on hold' for a while. However, political interests sometimes dictate a different choice.
Klaas van der Horst
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