Background Nitrogen mood
The Aerius economy continues undisturbed
There will be another update in about a week the Aerius calculation model, for, among other things, determining emission circles. Number of governments, consultancy firms and other parties are eagerly awaiting this. It is useful for rolling out new policy, identifying polluting farmers, registering agricultural land to be converted or for building a bridge in the polder.
Don't count on this brand new release containing all the latest insights, such as those from research by the UvA, from foreign studies or from new publications from the old RIVM box itself, are processed. The RIVM appears to be planning to distance itself from Aerius slowly and without losing face. The first step was taken at the end of last week with the report that the RIVM, loosely translated, believes the instrument has become too political and wants to dispose of it.
Inaccuracies
Aerius had long become a burden for the RIVM due to the mistakes at the end of last year with the nitrogen and ammonia top 100s. It then became apparent that the model also contained a lot of inaccuracy at company level. An investigation into these errors is still ongoing in the pipeline.
The outgoing cabinet also seems unwilling to take a critical look at the Aerius modeling. This became clear during this week's general reflections, when outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte stopped the boat after critical questions from Caroline van der Plas. There is also so much policy involved. The easiest choice seems to be to pretend your nose is bleeding.
Low-emission stables
Many people simply do not yet understand what it means that nitrogen and ammonia emissions can hardly be traced further than a few hundred meters around a farm to that farm, whether it has been established that grassland does not contain more than 40 kilos of nitrogen per hectare. emissions, but at most 12 kilos. Although only in a limited number of measurements, but in the first and so far only series. Farmers are also still shocked by 'old' nitrogen news, which can probably also be viewed through a different lens. And this is not just about PAS detectors or companies that are not yet licensed, but also about concerns about low-emission stables. They may not work well, but with a less widespread distribution of emissions than Aerius wants, this also means less vulnerability. At least, with a view to licensing.
Boost for Aerius economy
There are now also many people who understand exactly what it means, but for whom its meaning is downright undesirable. And you don't have to be a weird conspiracy theorist or anything for that. There is a huge Aerius economy, which gets a boost from every new release. For those devising nature plans, Aerius is essential to designate more areas as vulnerable and then expand the area. The site management organizations (TBOs) also have an interest in this, which will then have even more land under their management, usually donated by the government. They are assisted by ecological consultancy firms, which make calculations for them and for other parties. Then there are lawyers and also financial parties.
Arcadis advises and thinks about itself
A good example of how such an Aerius ecosystem works can be illustrated by Arcadis. It draws up so-called nature objective analyzes (NDAs) for various provinces. The nitrogen sensitivity of a nature reserve is determined, largely on the basis of Aerius. Every time it turns out to be bigger than expected, as Minister Van der Wal recently announced. North Brabant laid last spring licensing is at a standstill due to alarming outcome after findings from Arcadis, among others. Arcadis has now realized that more can be done with this.
Pond with Amsterdam money
Together with the manager of an Amsterdam pond with money, Cyclas Capital, it has set up an investment fund for converting farmland into nature: ReTimber. Because, "Arcadis uses its network to identify possible candidates for the purchase of suitable plots of land." Cycas has also already joined forces with ARK Nature Development to secure new natural areas. Cycas has money and can put it away nicely with the help of tax schemes and climate funds. It is already talking about €100 to €200 million initially. Arcadis, Ark and other parties can lay their hands on land. BBB Gelderland now has asked questions whether Arcadis is not going too far with this double role.
Politics decides for itself
Now there will be elections in two months, but it may take a long time before politicians are willing to draw new conclusions from the new scientific insights. Politics can also decide for itself what it wants to see as the latest insights. That is why there are organizations and individuals who prefer to go to court, as a club like MOB does.
D66 members love Tjeerd de Groot
It is still not entirely clear who will be chosen as representatives of agriculture or the countryside in two months' time. NSC keeps its cards close to its chest for the longest time. First Pieter Omtzigt and his colleagues must draw up an election manifesto, then draw up a list. Other parties also still have some homework to do. There was a noticeable, although small, movement at D66 last week. Member of Parliament Tjeerd de Groot was initially placed in an unelectable position by the party leadership, but he has now moved up. First due to the resignation of a colleague before him, later due to action by party members. There is a chance that the party congress will move him up even further. The real D66'ers love his sound.
Klaas van der Horst
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