The price of electricity was relatively volatile and high last week. Relatively large differences in the production of renewable energy appear to be the culprit. In addition, the gas price is pushing up electricity rates and the expansion of the high-voltage grid has again been delayed.
The electricity price was a lot higher this week. On Tuesday, September 26, the price of the EPEX peaked at €125,70. The price fell towards the weekend. On Sunday, October 1, the price was at the lowest level of the week. On that day, electricity traded for €73,17.
The large differences in the electricity price last week are mainly related to the production of renewable energy. Over the entire week, production was neither high nor low. In total, 39,4% of all electricity was generated by sun and wind. The large differences in electricity prices are directly related to the strong wind power. On Tuesday and Wednesday, considerably less wind energy was generated than the rest of the week. As a result, the market was dependent on relatively expensive fossil fuels that day.
A relatively high gas price also pushed the electricity price up a little further. The TTF seems to have found a new balance between €40 and €50 in recent weeks. That the price remained so high last week is somewhat surprising. Because the strikes in the Australian LNG sector have finally ended, analysts had expected a decline. However, due to a new extension of maintenance on the Norwegian gas network, the decline did not occur.
The market expects prices to be slightly lower this week. In all likelihood, gas imports from Norway will increase again in the coming weeks. It is expected that volumes will be restored by approximately 50% and the entire supply should be available again from October 9. In addition, the availability of renewable energy appears to fluctuate less. According to the weather forecast, the wind force should be almost constant around 3, with occasional peaks of wind force 4 or 5. This will probably give an impetus to the production of renewable energy, which will put pressure on prices slightly.
Expansion of high-voltage grid
In addition, a reinforcement project for the high-voltage grid has been delayed. TenneT planned to build a new high-voltage connection between Almelo and Hengelo this year. However, it is taking longer than planned to make agreements with the owners of the land under which the cable runs. TenneT's forecast is that the work will be completed in the second half of 2024. Due to the delay, it will take longer before major users can claim a new connection.